时间:2019年11月15日 15:39:56

The ed Kingdom ranks as one of the most successful marriages in history. England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have survived ancient hatreds, tribal rivalry and war. Each nation has been enriched by a journey of enlightenment, empire, shared energy and enterprise.联合王国(ed Kingdom)是史上最成功的联姻之一。英格兰、苏格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰经历过历史恩怨、部落敌对和战争,却最终走到了一起。启蒙运动、帝国的辉煌、共同的活力与进取,这段旅程让其中的每个民族都得到了丰富。In seven days, this splendid mess of a union, to e Simon Schama, the British historian, risks being separated into its national parts. Scotland will vote in a referendum to decide whether to stay in the UK or sunder bonds stretching back to 1707. Opinion polls suggest the result is too close to call, a prospect which has alarmed financial markets, wrongfooted allies and sent a complacent coalition government scrambling to find a last-minute sweetener to win over the Scots.几天后,这个“伟大而混乱的联盟”(借用英国历史学家西蒙#8226;沙玛(Simon Schama)的说法)就有可能分裂为不同的民族国家。苏格兰将在9月18日举行公投,投票决定是继续留在英国,还是割裂苏格兰与英格兰自1707年起结成的联盟。民意调查结果显示,持和反对独立的票数可能过于接近、难有清晰的胜负。这一前景让金融市场陷入了动荡,让英国的盟友慌了神,让原本自命不凡的英国联合政府急急忙忙寻找最后时刻的笼络手段,以争取苏格兰人留下。Empires and nation states are not immune to break-up, but there is little precedent for a hitherto stable modern democracy splitting in peacetime, in the middle of an economic recovery. This is not the time for recrimination. For the moment, it is enough for this newspaper to declare that the path of separation is a fool’s errand, one fraught with danger and uncertainty.帝国和民族国家有时不免会分裂,但一个迄今为止稳定的现代民主国家,在和平时期和经济复苏进程中分裂,这样的先例少之又少。眼下不是相互指责的时候。就目前而言,英国《金融时报》认为,仅仅这样说就足够了——分裂是一件徒劳无益、充满了危险和不确定的事情。Scotland is a proud and vibrant nation. Scots have contributed disproportionately to the union. They have played a leading role in arts, commerce, literature, the military, politics and sport. But a vote in favour of secession would be an irreversible act with profound consequences, not merely for 5m Scots but also for the other 58m citizens of England, Wales and Northern Ireland (including 750,000 Scots living and working outside Scotland who under the terms of the referendum have no say on the future of their country).苏格兰是一个充满了自豪和活力的民族。苏格兰人对联盟的贡献远远超过了其在英国总人口中所占比例。苏格兰人在艺术、商业、文学、军事、政治和体育中发挥着领先的作用。但投票决定独立是一件无法回头的事情,会产生深远影响——不仅会影响到500万苏格兰人,还会影响到其他5800万生活在英格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰的英国人(其中包括75万在苏格兰以外生活和工作、根据公投规则无法为自己国家的未来投上一票的苏格兰人)。The act of separation would diminish the UK in every international body, notably the EU. It would raise complex – and still unanswered – questions about the common defence of the British Isles, the future of the currency and political arrangements for the rest of the UK. Above all, a Yes vote would ignore the lessons of the 20th century, a chapter in European history indelibly scarred by narrow nationalism.分裂会削弱英国在每一个国际机构中的地位,特别是在欧盟(EU)中的地位。随之而来的还有各种复杂、且仍然无解的问题,比如不列颠群岛的共同防卫、英镑的未来、以及英国其余地区在政治上的安排。最重要的是,如果投票结果持独立,那将是忽视20世纪的教训——狭隘的民族主义在欧洲的这一历史篇章中留下了永恒的伤疤。A union born of a now-lost empire is one entirely suited to the world of the 21st century. The nation states that prosper in the age of globalisation are ones that bind themselves together in mutual endeavour. The experience of small states in the wake of the financial crisis is far from happy. Iceland and Ireland were left cruelly exposed. Further east, the Baltic states, brave and resourceful as the Scots, are members of the EU and Nato but still feel vulnerable to the bear’s paw of a revanchist Russia.脱胎于如今已消逝的大英帝国的英格兰与苏格兰的联盟完全适合于21世纪的世界。在全球化时代蓬勃发展的民族国家,是那些通过共同努力实现民族联合的国家。金融危机后那些小国的经历堪称悲惨。冰岛和爱尔兰当时都非常无助。往东,与苏格兰人一样勇敢和足智多谋的波罗的海国家,尽管是欧盟和北约(Nato)成员国,但在复仇主义俄罗斯的熊爪面前仍然自觉脆弱。The case against secession cannot rest on nostalgia, though the Better Together campaign has been lamentably short of passion compared with the energetic, well-funded Yes effort run by Alex Salmond, the beguiling first minister of Scotland. It must rest first on an understanding of the political forces which have made independence a tempting prospect for Scots, as well as a hard-nosed assessment of the risks involved for all concerned.反对分裂不能只打怀旧牌,但令人扼腕的是,“在一起更好”(Better Together)运动与“独立苏格兰”(Yes Scotland)运动相比太缺乏了。富有迷惑力的苏格兰首席大臣亚历克斯#8226;萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)领导的“独立苏格兰”运动则充满活力,且资金充裕。要有理有据地反对分裂,首先要理解是哪些政治作用力使得独立成为苏格兰人向往的前景,并对涉及所有相关方的风险进行注重实际的评估。The debate about devolving power to Scotland goes back more than a century. Keir Hardie, the Scottish Labour leader, proposed home rule in 1888 but his call carried little resonance. Scots were playing a leading role in ruling one-quarter of the world’s population. Glasgow was famed as the “second city of the empire”.关于向苏格兰下放权力的辩论可追溯至一个多世纪以前。1888年,当时的苏格兰工党领袖基尔#8226;哈迪(Keir Hardie)曾呼吁苏格兰自治,但反响不大。那时的大英帝国统治着全世界四分之一的人口,而苏格兰人正积极参与这种统治。格拉斯哥在当时被誉为“大英帝国第二大城市”。The ties that bind have loosened over the past 70 years. The empire is gone, and the workshop of the world is no more. Scotland’s transition to a post-industrialised economy has been painful, though its overall economic performance over recent decades has been strong.曾经紧密的纽带在过去70年中渐渐松弛。大英帝国已逝去,英国也不再是“世界工厂”。苏格兰经济在后工业时代经历了痛苦的转型,不过在近几十年,其经济一直整体表现强劲。England and Scotland have grown apart politically. In the 1950s, the Conservative and Unionist party – to remind David Cameron’s party of its proper name – had an absolute majority of parliamentary seats in Scotland. Today, the Tory party’s representation has shrunk to a single MP, partly a legacy of Margaret Thatcher’s ill-judged poll tax and the benign neglect of a strong pound which devastated manufacturing north and south of the border. The discovery of North Sea oil in the 1960s further reinforced Scottish nationalism.英格兰和苏格兰在政治上渐行渐远。上世纪50年代,在英国国会里代表苏格兰各选区的议席中,保守与统一党(Conservative and Unionist party,保守党的现任首相戴维#8226;卡梅伦应注意,这才是保守党的全称)占绝对多数。如今,托利党(Tory party,保守党的别称——译者注)议席缩减为仅1席。这在某种程度上要归罪于玛格丽特#8226;撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)当年失策的人头税,以及对英镑走强的善意忽视(强势英镑摧毁了苏格兰和英格兰的制造业)。上世纪60年代北海发现石油,进一步助长了苏格兰人的民族主义。Tony Blair believed he could stymie the nationalist movement with more devolution of powers. His Labour government established a Scottish parliament at Holyrood. In retrospect, devolution did nothing to halt the secular decline of Labour in Scotland. Too many of the party’s heavyweights treated Scotland as a rotten borough to help them to power in London. Devolution may have encouraged further divergence on policies such as pensions, social care or university education from those in England.托尼#8226;布莱尔(Tony Blair)以为他可以通过加大权力下放来阻止民族主义运动。他领导的工党政府在爱丁堡的圣路德(Holyrood)建立了苏格兰议会。回过头来看,权力下放丝毫未能阻止工党在苏格兰的长期衰落。工党太多重量级人物都曾将苏格兰当作“烂行政区”(rotten borough,指《1832年改革法案》(Reform Act 1832)出台前,英国的一些选民数量极少、因而选票容易纵的行政区——译者注),借之帮助自己在伦敦高升。权力下放或许促使了苏格兰与英格兰在养老、社会保障、大学教育等政策方面的差异进一步扩大。Mr Salmond, a seasoned operator, has exploited the populist mood. Voters are angry about austerity caused by the financial crisis and alienated from the political establishment. Mr Salmond casts himself as an insurgent representing a new brand of civic nationalism in which the Scots will have control over their fate in a fresh young democracy.萨尔蒙德是个老道的操纵者,他一直在利用这种民粹主义情绪。选民对金融危机导致的紧缩政策感到愤怒,与政治当权派产生了隔阂。萨尔蒙德将自己塑造为一个反叛者,代表一种新的公民民族主义,跟随这种民族主义,苏格兰人将通过一个崭新的新生民主国家掌握自己的命运。Mr Salmond can tug on the emotions of his fellow countrymen but he has given few credible answers about the challenges – economic, social and international – which would face Scotland. His Panglossian pitch is that the Scots can have the best of all possible worlds: independence, the monarchy and the pound, and that a Scotland which retreats into a narrower nationalist identity will somehow be better equipped to prosper in a world of globalisation.萨尔蒙德可以利用同胞的感情,但对于苏格兰可能面临的经济、社会和国际方面的挑战,他没有给出多少可信的。他的论调洋溢着过分乐观主义,说苏格兰可以拥有一切最好的——独立、君主制、还有英镑;他还说,苏格兰在退回更狭隘的民族主义身份之后,将以某种方式变得更适于在全球化世界中蓬勃发展。His argument contains glaring inconsistencies. A currency union demands a political union. The eurozone’s travails show us as much. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, made clear again this week that political independence is incompatible with maintaining sterling as the currency of choice. Mr Salmond insists the English establishment is bluffing. This is no bluff. The currency uncertainty will blight every aspect of the Scottish economy, from commercial lending to mortgages. Without total clarity, every Scottish citizen is left exposed.他的主张有显而易见的矛盾之处。货币联盟要求政治联盟。欧元区的痛苦经历就充分表明了这一点。英国央行(BoE)行长马克#8226;卡尼(Mark Carney)上周已明确表示,政治独立与保留英镑为法定货币,两者不可兼得。萨尔蒙德坚称,英格兰当权派是在危言耸听。但这不是危言耸听。货币方面的不确定将让苏格兰经济的每个方面蒙上阴影,从商业贷款到抵押贷款。没有充分的确定性,每个苏格兰公民都面临风险。Mr Salmond claims that separation is the best guarantee of future prosperity. His calculations are based on much wishful thinking covering vital matters such as the future oil price and how much of the UK’s debt would be assumed by the Scots. He presumes that it serves no one’s interest to be unreasonable about the terms of divorce, but he under-estimates the psychological shock. No one can predict the consequences.萨尔蒙德宣称,独立是未来繁荣的最佳保。他打的算盘大都基于一厢情愿的想法,掩盖了未来石油价格、苏格兰将承担多大份额的英国债务等关键问题。他认为,提出离谱的分家条款对任何人都没有好处,但他低估了心理的冲击。没有人能预测到这会产生何种影响。Nor is it obvious why Scotland will gain early and automatic entry into the EU. Other European states with their own separatist movements – notably Spain – have little incentive to agree to a quick deal. The only certainty is uncertainty, at a high cost to Scotland and the UK. The shift of deposits and money out of Scotland this week is a harbinger.苏格兰为何将能尽早和“自动”加入欧盟也令人费解。其他存在分裂运动的欧盟国家,特别是西班牙,没有多少动力同意迅速达成苏格兰入盟协议。唯一确定的事就是不确定,这对苏格兰和英国都意味着高昂的代价。上周存款和资金流出苏格兰,就是一个兆头。There must be a better way. Britain needs a new political settlement that implements at home what it preaches in Europe: subsidiarity. For too long, the British government has imposed a “Whitehall-knows-best” policy on the nations and regions. More devolution is the answer, but not at any price. Mr Cameron and his London-based colleagues should t carefully in the coming days. It is far from clear how England, the preponderant power, would fit into a federalised union in which Scotland enjoyed all political gifts short of independence.必然存在更好的方式。英国需要新的政治安排,将其在欧洲鼓吹的辅助原则(subsidiarity,即中央权力机构应起辅助作用,只履行地方机构不能履行的职责——译者注)应用到自己身上。太长时间以来,英国政府对各民族和各地区都实行“白厅最懂”政策。加大权力下放是解决方法,但不是不惜代价。未来几天,卡梅伦和他的伦敦同僚们应该小心行事。在一个让苏格兰享有除独立以外的一切政治好处的联邦制联盟中,占有优势的英格兰该如何摆正自己的位置,这一点还远不清楚。Everything turns on the vote on September 18. It is not too late to remind the Scots and the rest of the UK how much they have benefited from being British. Great Britain stands for an expansive and inclusive view of the world. The union is something precious, not a bauble to be cast aside. In a week’s time, the Scots can vote with a sense of ambition to build on those successes. Rather than retreat into tribalism, they can continue to be part of a nation rooted not just in history and culture but a common destiny which over three centuries has served all so well.9月18日投票那一天,一切都会改变。我们应该提醒苏格兰人和其他地方的英国人,英国人的身份带给了他们多少好处,现在提醒还不晚。大不列颠代表一种视野开阔、具有包容性的世界观。英国这个联盟是宝物,不是什么可以随便扔掉的小玩意。几天后,苏格兰人就可以带着续写成功的豪情投票了。与其退回部落主义,他们可以继续做联合王国的一部分,这个国家不仅根源于历史和文化,还根源于三个多世纪以来带给所有人福祉的共同目标。 /201409/328390

;Almost all other animals are clearly observed to partake in sleep, whether they are aquatic, aerial, or terrestrial,; wrote Aristotle in his work On Sleep and Sleeplessness. But do other animals dream? On that the Greek philosopher also had an opinion. In The History of Animals, he wrote: ;It would appear that not only do men dream, but horses also, and dogs, and oxen; aye, and sheep, and goats, and all viviparous quadrupeds; and dogs show their dreaming by barking in their sleep.; His research methods may lack sophistication, but Aristotle may not have been too far off the mark.亚里士多德在文章《论睡和醒》中写道:“人们清楚地观察到,几乎所有的动物都会睡觉,不论是水生、陆生还是在空中飞翔的动物。”但是动物会做梦吗?在这个问题上,这个希腊哲学家也有自己的看法。在专著《动物志》中,他写道:“看来不只人会做梦,马、、牛也都会做梦;同样,绵羊、山羊以及所有的胎生四足动物也都会做梦;并且,在睡眠中吠叫就是做梦的表现。”亚里士多德的研究方法也许不够完善成熟,但和事实或许也已经相去不远了。We certainly can#39;t ask animals if they dream, but we can at least observe the evidence that they might. There are two ways in which scientists have gone about this seemingly impossible task. One is to look at their physical behaviour during the various phases of the sleep cycle. The second is to see whether their sleeping brains work similarly to our own sleeping brains.我们当然不能直接问动物它们是否做梦,但我们至少可以观察到它们可能做梦的据。对于这个看似不可能的任务,科学家们已经尝试了两种方法。一种是观察动物在睡眠周期各个阶段中的身体行为,另一种是观测动物和人类在睡眠时的大脑状态是否相似。The story of how we worked out how to peer into the minds of sleeping animals begins in the 1960s. Back then, scattered reports began to appear in medical journals describing people acting out movements in their dreams. This was curious, because during so-called REM sleep (rapid eye movement), our muscles are usually paralysed.人们从上世纪60年代开始研究如何窥探动物睡眠时的大脑活动。那时,医学杂志上开始零星出现描述人在睡梦中“表演”动作的报告。这在当时是很新奇的,因为在所谓的REM(rapid eye movement快速眼球运动)* 睡眠中,我们的肌肉通常是处于麻痹状态的。Researchers realised that inducing a similar state in animals could allow them to probe how they dream. In 1965, French scientists Michel Jouvet and J F Delorme found that removing a part of the brainstem, called the pons, from a cat#39;s brain prevented it becoming paralysed when in REM. The researchers called the condition ;REM without atonia; or REM-A. Instead of lying still, the cats walked around and behaved aggressively.研究者们意识到,如果能引导动物产生和人类相似的状态,那么他们就可以探查动物是如何做梦的了。在1965年,法国科学家米歇尔·朱费(Michel Jouvet)和J·F·德罗尔姆(J F Delorme)发现,如果把猫脑中脑干的脑桥部分移除,就可以防止其在REM睡眠中出现麻痹状态。研究者把这种情况称作“REM肌张力缺失现象消失(REM without atonia)”或REM-A。在这种情况下,猫不会静静地躺着,反而会四处走动并表现出攻击性。This hinted they were dreaming of activities from their waking hours. And studies since have revealed similar behaviour. According to veterinary neurologist Adrian Morrison, who has written a review of this research, cats in REM-A will move their heads as if following stimuli. Some cats also show behaviour identical to predatory attacks, as if they were chasing mice in their dreams. Similar dream activity has been seen in dogs.这表明,猫正在做醒时活动的梦。自那以后的研究也都揭示了相似的行为表现。根据兽神经学家阿德里安·莫里森(Adrian Morrison)对这项研究的评述,处于REM-A状态中的猫会像有刺激物一样摇晃脑袋。一些猫还会表现出等同于捕食性攻击的行为,就像它们在梦境中追逐老鼠一样。而也表现出了相似的梦中活动。Some humans have been found to ‘act out’ their dreams too – if they suffer from a condition called REM Sleep Behaviour Disorder. ;Punching, kicking, leaping, and running from the bed during attempted dream enactment are frequent manifestations and usually correlate with the reported imagery,; according to the International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD). Injuries are common among these people and those sleeping with them, the ICSD adds.一些人类也被发现有“表演”梦境的行为——如果它们患上了“REM睡眠行为障碍”。根据国际睡眠障碍分类(ICSD)描述,“这种情况的常见表现是表演出梦境中的行为,如拳打脚踢、跳跃奔跑,并且通常能与报告中描绘的画面对应。”ICSD还补充道,这些人常会自伤或伤及同床者。Physical movement is not the only way of peering into dreams, though. Researchers can now humanely peer into the electrical and chemical activities of brain cells in animals while they sleep. In 2007, MIT scientists Kenway Louise and Matthew Wilson recorded the activity of neurons in a part of the rat brain called the hippocampus, a structure known to be involved in the formation and encoding of memories. They first recorded the activity of those brain cells while the rats ran in their mazes. Then they looked at the activity of the very same neurons while they slept. Louise and Wilson discovered identical patterns of firing during running and during REM. In other words, it was as if the rats were running the maze in their minds while they were snoozing. The results were so clear that the researchers could infer the rats#39; precise location within their mental dream mazes and map them to actual spots within the actual maze.然而,身体行为并不是窥探梦境的唯一方法。现在,研究者们可以在不伤害动物的情况下探查其睡眠时脑细胞内的电流和化学活动。2007年,麻省理工大学的科学家肯威·路易斯(Kenway Louise)和马修·威尔森(Matthew Wilson)记录下了老鼠脑内“海马体”部位的神经细胞活动,而“海马体”是与记忆的形成转换有关的结构。当老鼠在迷宫里奔跑时,他们第一次记录下了它们脑细胞内的活动。之后在老鼠睡眠时,他们又观察相同神经细胞的活动。路易斯和威尔森发现,在奔跑和睡眠时,老鼠脑细胞内的活动模式是相同的。也就是说,当老鼠在酣睡时,它们脑内活动就像还在迷宫里奔跑一样。结果是如此明确,以至于研究者们可以推测出老鼠在脑内梦中迷宫里的准确位置,并且能在现实迷宫中把它们的实际位置标出来。University of Chicago biologists Amish Dave and Daniel Margoliash looked into the brains of zebra finches and discovered something similar. These birds are not born with the melodies of their songs hardwired into the brains; instead, they have to learn to sing their songs. When they#39;re awake, the neurons in part of the finches#39; forebrain called the robutus archistriatalis fire following their singing of particular notes. Researchers can determine which note was sung based on the firing patterns of those neurons. By piecing together the electrical patterns in those neurons over time, Dave and Margoliash can reconstruct the entire song from start to finish.芝加哥大学的生物学家阿米什·戴夫(Amish Dave)和丹尼尔·马格赖许(Daniel Margoliash)观察了斑胸草雀的大脑,并有了类似的发现。这些鸟并不是天生脑子里就有歌曲的旋律,相反,它们要通过学习才能唱歌。当斑胸草雀醒着的时候,在它们唱到某些特定音符时,其前脑中古纹状体粗核部位的神经细胞就会开始活动。研究者们基于这些神经细胞的活动模式就可以判定斑胸草雀唱到了哪个音符。通过把这些神经细胞中的电流模式拼合,戴夫和马格赖许就能把整首歌从头到尾地重现了。Later, when the birds were asleep, Dave and Margoliash looked again at the electrical activity in that part of their brains. The firing of those neurons wasn#39;t entirely random. Instead, the neurons fired in order, as if the bird was audibly singing the song, note for note. It might be said that the zebra finches were practising their songs while they slumbered.随后,在这些鸟睡眠时,戴夫和马格赖许再一次观察其脑内相同部位的电流活动。这些神经细胞的活动并不是完全随机的。相反,这些神经细胞在有秩序地活动,就像这些鸟把歌曲一个音符一个音符地唱出声来一样。这可能说明,斑胸草雀在睡眠中也在练习唱歌。Does the behaviour of cats in science experiments actually qualify as dreaming? Do rats have any subjective awareness that they#39;re running their mazes in their minds while they nap? Do the songbirds realise that they#39;re singing in their sleep? These questions are as hard to answer as the question of consciousness. It#39;s tricky. We humans do not usually realise we#39;re dreaming while we#39;re dreaming, but it becomes clear as soon as we wake up. Do zebra finches remember their dreams as dreams when they#39;re shaken out of their sleep? Can they distinguish the real world from the one in their dreams? We can say with a reasonable amount of certainty that the physiological and behavioural features of dreaming in humans have now been observed in cats, rats, birds, and other animals. Yet what it’s actually like to experience a dream if you’re not human remains a mystery.科学实验中猫的行为表现是否可看作是真正在做梦呢?对于睡眠时脑内在迷宫中奔跑的状态,老鼠自身有客观意识吗?这些唱歌的鸟又是否意识到自己在睡眠中唱歌呢?这些问题和与意识相关的问题一样难以回答。这很棘手。我们人类在做梦时通常都不能意识到自己是在做梦,但是在醒来后就能马上清楚地意识到这件事。那么,斑胸草雀从梦中醒来后是否记得自己的梦呢?它们能把现实世界和梦境区分开吗?我们可以非常确定地说,如今在猫、鼠、鸟等动物中都能观察到与人类相同的做梦时的身体行为特征。然而,非人类在做梦时是怎样的感觉,这依然是个谜。 /201404/292970

When I was a child growing up in England three decades ago, I was confronted with the visual evidence of social mobility every day – but of the downward, not upward, type.30年前,当我还是个孩子的时候,我住在英格兰,每天都目睹表明社会流动性的“视觉”据,不过流动方向是向下的,而不是向上的。We lived in a suburban, middle-class home. On the walls, however, hung the portrait of an 18th-century Anglo-French aristocrat, a maternal ancestor. In the intervening centuries, my aristocratic forebears had lost their status and wealth due to drink, gambling and poor decisions. Thus, my only link with royalty was that portrait and the fact that I have the same unusual middle name – Romaine – as the noblewoman in the picture.我们是生活在郊区的中产阶级之家。但家里的墙上挂着一幅18世纪英法贵族的画像,她是我母亲家族的一位祖先。从她往后的几个世纪里,我的贵族祖先们由于饮酒、和一些糟糕的决定而失去了地位和财富。因此,我与贵族仅有的联系就是那幅画像,以及我有一个不同寻常的中间名罗曼(Romaine),与画像中的贵妇一样。A rare example of social mobility or a widesp pattern? Today, that is a very politically charged question, particularly in countries such as the US. But it is also a very hard question to answer definitively.这是社会流动性的一个罕见例子,还是一种普遍模式?如今,这是一个充满政治意味的问题,尤其是在像美国这样的国家。但这个问题很难明确回答。Social mobility is an issue about which politicians love to pontificate but about which we actually know surprisingly little. Economists have generally tracked mobility by looking at surveys on wealth, jobs and educational attainment over two or three generations. This has typically shown that mobility is highest in the Scandinavian countries and lowest in places such as Latin America, with the US and UK lying halfway in between.社会流动性是政治人士喜欢夸夸其谈的一个问题,但实际上我们对它的了解出奇地少。经济学家一般通过考察两、三代人的财富、就业和教育程度来追踪社会流动性。这些研究一般表明,斯堪的纳维亚国家的社会流动性最高,拉美等国最低,美国和英国介于二者之间。Interestingly, these surveys tend to show that more mobile societies such as Sweden are also more equal, as determined by the Gini coefficient, the most commonly used measure of inequality, and vice versa. The idea that you can justify high levels of inequality in some nations because there is plenty of mobility – as US politicians are apt to do – does not ring entirely true, based on the economic numbers.有趣的是,这些调查往往表明,瑞典等社会流动性较大的国家也更为平等,与基尼系数(Gini coefficient,最为常见的衡量不平等程度的指标)所显示的一样,反之亦然。有人认为,可以把一些国家的高度不平等说成合理的,因为它们的社会流动性很大——美国政客就经常这么说。但根据经济数据,这种看法并不完全正确。The problem with this widely cited economic data are that they are very limited: it typically only tracks families over a generation or two and cannot capture subtle social patterns. So Gregory Clark, an economic historian at the University of California, Davis, has recently attempted to use another innovative approach that blends sociology, economics and history. In a new book, The Son Also Rises, he has analysed surnames in historical databases around the world to work out how families have risen in terms of wealth and status over multiple generations. In the US he looked at doctors; in the UK, at elite universities such as Oxford and Cambridge; and in Sweden, land records.这些被普遍引用的经济数据的问题在于,它们非常有限:它们对家族数据的追踪通常仅限于一、两代人,无法捕捉微妙的社会模式。因此,美国加州大学戴维斯分校(University of California, Davis)经济历史学家格里高利#8226;克拉克(Gregory Clark)最近尝试运用另一种创新方法,把社会学、经济学和历史学结合在一起。在其新书《虎子崛起》(The Son Also Rises)中,他对全球历史数据库中的姓氏进行了分析,考察家族财富和地位是如何在好几代人时间内上升的。在美国,他考察了医生;在英国,他考察的是牛津(Oxford)和剑桥(Cambridge)等精英大学;在瑞典,他考察的是土地记录。This approach – like the econometric one – has its limits. Historical lists of surnames or elite jobs can be patchy, particularly since they are dominated by the paternal line. (My story of maternal downward mobility, for example, would have been missed.) But Clark reaches some thought-provoking conclusions. First, he argues that if you look at multiple generations, social mobility is lower than widely presumed in most nations. Second, there is less difference between nations than usually thought. Those “egalitarian” Swedes are not as mobile as presumed. But in America, Clark rejects the idea that mobility has recently declined sharply as social polarisation has grown – an idea posited, for example, in Coming Apart, an influential book published last year by the political scientist Charles Murray. Clark argues that mobility is indeed low in America but insists it has always been thus.这种方法(类似计量经济学方法)有其局限性。姓氏或精英职业的历史清单可能是不完整的,尤其它们主要是父系数据。(例如,我母亲家族的向下流动会被遗漏。)但克拉克得出了一些发人深省的结论。首先,他主张,如果从好几代人的数据来看,多数国家的社会流动性低于人们普遍的想象。其次,国家间的差异小于人们通常的想象。“主张平等”的瑞典人的社会流动性并不像人们想象的那样大。但对美国,克拉克并不同意以下观点:由于社会两级分化现象加剧,社会流动性最近大幅下降——这是政治学家查尔斯#8226;默里(Charles Murray)去年出版的颇具影响力的著作《分化》(Coming Apart)中的看法。克拉克指出,美国的社会流动性确实很低,但他坚持称,该国一直如此。 /201403/280302

Neil Clark Warren has a bold ambition. He wants “people to have a job they love and a marriage they wouldn’t change for anything”. For the 79-year-old founder and chief executive of dating site eHarmony now wants to match job hunters with employers.尼尔#8226;克拉克#8226;沃伦(Neil Clark Warren)有一个大胆的愿望。他希望“人们拥有一份自己热爱的工作和一段他们拿什么也不会去换的婚姻”。这位80岁的交友网站eHarmony创始人和首席执行官,现在希望实现求职者与雇主的配对。The dating marketplace is crowded. Online dating, once stigmatised, is now mainstream.交友市场已经饱和。曾背负骂名的在线交友正变成主流。Eharmony, founded in 2000, today competes with niche sites catering for users from vegetarians to Ayn Rand fans, as well as social media and apps such as Tinder. Though Dr Warren patently sees his site, which claims to have been responsible for 600,000 marriages, as a cut above those facilitating mere hookups. “Tinder and eHarmony are in two different businesses. Tinder is very superficial; it’s based on looks.”Eharmony创建于2000年,如今与其竞争的是一些专门务于各类细分用户(从素食主义者到艾恩#8226;兰德(Ayn Rand)的粉丝)的网站以及社交媒体和Tinder等应用。然而,沃伦士显然认为自己的网站优于那些只是安排约会的网站。该网站声称促成了60万桩婚姻。“Tinder和eHarmony处于两种不同的业务。Tinder非常肤浅;它基于外表。”Dr Warren wants to broaden eHarmony’s appeal and become a “relationship company”. Not just making love and job matches but also fixing retirees up with advisers and the isolated with friends. He sees loneliness as one of the biggest problems in modern society. Technology, he concedes, is a double-edged sword, both contributing to and combating isolation.沃伦士希望拓宽eHarmony的吸引力,使其变成一家“关系公司”。不仅撮合爱情和工作,还会帮助退休人士与顾问、孤独人群与朋友牵线。他将孤独视为现代社会的最大问题之一。他承认,科技是一把双刃剑,既导致了孤独,也能被用来战胜孤独。But first he is going after the jobs giants, LinkedIn and Monster. In December eHarmony’s subsidiary Elevated Careers will launch in the US. Dr Warren believes there is an untapped market of unfulfilled professionals. “Over 70 per cent of employees identify themselves as not engaged or actively disengaged from their jobs. We think we can reduce the amount of turnover and raise the level of productivity for companies by matching candidates with the right job, in the right career, with the right company.” He insists he can counter the modern career pattern of serial jobs in multiple companies and turn employees monogamous.然而,首先他要效仿那些猎头巨擘LinkedIn和Monster。今年12月,eHarmony的子公司Elevated Careers将在美国创建。沃伦认为,怀才不遇的专业人士市场尚未被开发。“超过70%的员工认为自己没有投入到工作中或者根本无心工作。我们认为,我们可以通过帮助求职者找到合适的工作、合适的职业、乃至合适的公司,来降低企业的流动率并提高生产率。”他坚持表示,他能够应对现代职场中连续跳槽、供职于多家公司的模式,让员工对企业忠诚。The fallout of those who flit from job to job is far-reaching, he says. His wife’s father, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate, moved jobs 17 times. “That has an impact”, he says. “When a person is unhappy at their job#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;it affects their home life, their marriage, their personal relationships, their relationships with their co-workers#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;[It has] a negative effect on the productivity of the organisations for which they are working.”他表示,员工不断跳槽的影响深远。他的岳父、一位麻省理工学院(MIT)毕业生换了17份工作。“这是有影响的,”他表示,“如果人们对工作不满……这会影响他们的家庭生活、婚姻、私人关系、与同事的关系……(这)会对他们所在企业的生产率造成负面影响。”So for the past two years he has set social scientists and technology employees to work on the criteriaand algorithms that will help employees and employers find “the one”. The dating site asks subscribers to answer about 150 questions to help identify values and personality. So Dr Warren envisages a questionnaire to unearth a candidate’s skills, expectation of culture and personality.因此,过去两年,他聘请社会学专家和科技员工开始研究相关标准和算法,帮助员工和雇主找到匹配的“另一半”。该交友网站要求用户回答约150个问题,以帮助确定他们的价值观和性格。因此,沃伦士设计了一份问卷,透视求职者的技能、文化预期和个性。Few recruiters do well on matching an employee with a company culture, he says. “The majority of the workforce change jobs for reasons directly related to company culture. It is imperative we bring candidates verifiable company-culture data that matches to their core work values so they can find the best possible opportunities to experience a meaningful and emotional connection with their work.” The details of such data remain secret.他表示,招聘机构一般做不到让员工与企业文化匹配。“大多数员工换工作的原因与企业文化直接有关。我们必须为求职者提供能够符合他们的核心工作价值观的可以查的企业文化数据,这样他们就能找到最佳可能的机会,与自己的工作产生有意义的、情感上的联系。”这些数据的具体细节仍是机密。Dr Warren knows about being faithful to one career. He worked as a relationship psychologist for 40 years before setting up eHarmony. Originally from a small town in Iowa, he went to a school attended by only 17 pupils. He was the only child in his class. “I came both first and last,” he jokes. His father was a “true entrepreneur” who, says Dr Warren, “owned the town”.沃伦懂得对一项事业忠诚。他在创建eHarmony之前,做了40年的婚恋心理学家。他来自爱荷华州的一个小镇,他所在的小学只有17个学生。他们班只有他一名学生。他开玩笑说“我既是第一个到,也是最后一个到。”他的父亲是一位“真正的企业家”,沃伦表示,他“是这个小镇的所有者”。Dr Warren’s brother-in-law took an interest in him as a teenager and encouraged his intellectual curiosity – no one else in his family had been to university. He studied at Princeton Theological Seminary before doing a PhD in clinical psychology at the University of Chicago.沃伦的夫在他十几岁时对他产生了兴趣,鼓励他对知识的好奇——他家里其他人都没上过大学。他先是在普林斯顿神学院(Princeton Theological Seminary)攻读,而后在芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)获得临床心理学士学位。His interest in relationships came from his Christian beliefs but also a sense that despite their 70-year marriage, his parents were incompatible. “My father was brilliant, very vital. He liked to talk about big things like the Middle East but my mother couldn’t keep up with him. They didn’t talk about much.”他对婚恋的兴趣来自于他的基督教信仰,也来自他的人生经历。他的父母尽管结婚70载,但并不相配。“我父亲聪明,非常有活力。他喜欢讨论大事,比如中东问题,但我母亲跟不上他。他们交流不多。”He says the relationship still worked very well for their children: “They never said anything sarcastic to each other.” But his parents’ example instilled in him the belief that a “long marriage is not necessarily a great marriage”.他表示,对于子女而言,他们的关系仍非常不错:“他们从不互相挖苦。”但父母的例子让他深信:“长久的婚姻不一定是美满的婚姻”。So Dr Warren set up as a marriage counsellor, seeing more than 7,700 people over the decades. The counselling only confirmed his convictions that divorce was due to incompatibility that should have been evident before the wedding. “I thought people had found the wrong person. They had never received any training about who they should meet.”于是,沃伦成为了一名婚姻顾问,几十年来有超过7700人向他咨询。辅导工作强化了他的信念:导致离婚的不和谐因素本应在结婚前就显而易见。“我认为,人们往往找错对象。他们从来没有接受过任何培训,告诉他们应该找什么样的另一半。”Pre-marital counselling did not seem to work. “I never had one couple cancel their wedding as a result.” He recalls one session in which the man told his fiancée: “Nothing this man says will stop me marrying you.”婚前咨询似乎不管用。“从来没有一对情侣因为咨询过我而取消婚礼。”他记得在一次咨询中,一位男子告诉他的未婚妻:“这个男人说的任何话都不会阻止我娶你。”It was this that set him – together with his son-in-law – on the idea of matchmaking online. Dr Warren had also reached a point in his career when his work had become “samey”. Despite diversifying into writing relationship books and running seminars, he craved stimulation. So in 2000, just before the dotcom bubble burst, the pair managed to raise .5m funding.正是这一点让他(以及他的女婿)产生了在线做媒的想法。当时沃伦的事业也到了“单调乏味”的时刻。尽管他会撰写有关婚恋的书籍,还举办研讨会,但他渴望刺激。于是,在2000年,就在网络泡沫破裂之前,两人成功筹集到了250万美元资金。It was difficult to find subscribers at the start, he says, because internet dating was relatively new. The first users tended to be those living in sparsely populated areas so there were a lot of long-distance relationships. But gradually, the California-based site grew.他说道,一开始很难找到用户,因为当时互联网交友还是一个相对新鲜的事物。首批用户往往是那些居住在人口稀少地区的人,因此有很多异地恋。但逐渐地,这个以加州为大本营的网站开始壮大。In 2007 he stood down from the privately owned company and moved to Maine with his wife to enjoy their 30-acre grounds, complete with golf course, swimming pool and tennis courts. Despite trying to stay active, he got bored, and, convinced that his company had lost its way, returned as chief executive.2007年,他从这家私人所有的企业退下来,与妻子搬到缅因州,享受30英亩的田园空间,包括高尔夫球场、游泳池以及网球场。尽管他努力保持活跃,但他还是感到了厌倦,他认为他的公司迷失了方向,于是回去重新出任首席执行官。During retirement he a lot of books about comeback kings such as Starbucks’ Howard Schultz and Steve Jobs. He felt “glad to have a chance to run the company as he wanted it”. In doing so he cut his staff from 320 to 190 and says the reorganisation is aligned with his views on job-matching. “We matched people with the right jobs in our own company.”退休期间,他阅读了很多有关王者归来的图书,例如星巴克(Starbucks)的霍华德#8226;舒尔茨(Howard Schultz)以及史蒂夫#8226;乔布斯(Steve Jobs)。他“很高兴有机会按照自己的意愿来管理这家公司”。在此过程中,他将员工从320人裁减至190人,他表示,重组与他有关工作配对的想法是一致的。“我们在自己的公司实现了员工与合适职位的匹配。”Dr Warren also believes he has made his “peace with same-sex relationships” after the company created a partner website for gay singles, called Compatible Partners, as a result of court cases that said eHarmony violated discrimination laws upholding equal rights regardless of sexual orientation. “We welcome everybody,” he says.沃伦士还认为,他与“同性婚恋讲和了”,此前该公司为单身同性恋者创办了一个同志交友网站,名为Compatible Partners,这源于一些法庭诉讼,这些诉讼称,eHarmony违反了反歧视法,这些法律持不同性取向的人士拥有平等权利。他表示:“我们欢迎所有人。”Can the 79-year-old grandfather keep on working? “I don’t think I’ll ever retire. I was bored in retirement.” He hopes, however, that the company’s chief operating officer will take over when that day eventually comes. “He’s a verb and I’m a noun.” What does he mean? “I’m more of a visionary and he’s more of a do-er.”这位80岁的祖父还能继续工作吗?“我认为我永远不会退休。我厌倦退休。”然而,他希望,当那一天最终到来时,公司的首席运营官将接替他。“他是动词,我是名词。什么意思?“我在更大程度上是一位梦想家,而他在更大程度上是一位实干者。” /201410/337059

文章编辑: 管优惠