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高密市妇幼保健院不孕不育中心青岛看妇科病好点的医院You often hear economists and investors talk these days about the ‘broken growth model’ in emerging markets. It isn’t a terribly precise term but it’s easy to see what people mean. The problem in EM is that none of the three possible sources of GDP growth – exports, or public domestic spending, or private domestic spending – have much going for them.如今你经常听到经济学家和投资者谈论新兴市场“增长模式破产”。这不是一个特别准确的术语,但我们不难看出人们所指的意思。新兴市场的问题在于,国内生产总值(GDP)的三个可能增长源头——出口、公共国内出和私人国内消费——没有一个是强劲的。Exports from EM are hobbled by a collapse in the growth of global trade and the related fall in world commodity prices. Public spending growth is weak because many governments are too nervous to loosen fiscal policy, fearing a loss of sovereign creditworthiness at a time when the outlook for capital inflows isn’t encouraging. And private domestic spending is hampered by the fact that credit markets in many countries are in ‘post-boom’ mode: neither domestic lenders nor borrowers have much in the way of risk appetite.全球贸易增速剧减以及相关的世界大宗商品价格下跌,重创了新兴市场的出口。公共出增长很弱,原因在于许多政府过于紧张、不敢放松财政政策,担心在资本流入前景不妙之际丧失主权信誉。私人国内消费受到了许多国家的信贷市场处于‘后繁荣’状态的抑制:国内的贷款机构和借款者两方面都没有多少风险偏好。All this helps to explain why emerging markets GDP growth, on average, should fall below 4 per cent this year for the first time since 2001.这一切有助于解释,为何今年的新兴市场平均GDP增速应该会自2001年以来首次降到4%以下。Faced with this state of affairs, you might think countries would be falling over themselves to reform their economies: reducing barriers to economic activity, de-clogging product markets, reducing regulation, making additional effort to seek new inflows of foreign direct investment. Yet most economists and investors with any knowledge of emerging markets would only be able to name two countries which have a definable reform strategy that is being more or less implemented: India and Mexico.面对这种局面,你或许会以为,新兴市场国家将竞相推行经济改革:降低经济活动门槛,疏通产品市场,减少监管,加倍努力寻求新的外国直接投资(FDI)。不过,大多数了解新兴市场的经济学家和投资者只能列出两个国家具有比较明确的改革战略、而且或多或少在执行战略:印度和墨西哥。Why are so few countries embracing reform? To see why, you need to think back to the early 2000s, when emerging economies were just, well, emerging from two decades of intermittent financial crises. Looking back on the grim experiences of the 1980s and 1990s – crises in Latin America, Asia, Russia, Turkey and others – the biggest question at the start of the 2000s was ‘what on earth is it that’s making developing countries so susceptible to crisis?’ And the answer seemed clear. The problem in emerging markets was overwhelmingly described as a problem to do with weak sovereign balance sheets: too much public debt, too much of it denominated in foreign currencies, and too much of it needing to be repaid too soon.为何拥抱改革的国家如此之少?若要知道原因,你需要回想一下本世纪初的情况,那时新兴经济体刚刚走出持续20年断断续续的金融危机。回忆一下上世纪80和90年代的可怕经历吧——拉美、亚洲、俄罗斯和土耳其等地的危机——本世纪初的最大问题是,“究竟是什么因素导致发展中国家这么容易爆发危机?”似乎显而易见。新兴市场的问题被多数人描述为与主权资产负债表薄弱有关:公共债务太高,其中以外币计价的债务比例太高,需要很快偿付的比例也太高。Structural reform was certainly part of the debate, but not too central to it.那时,结构改革当然是辩论的议题之一,但并非核心议题。This analysis spurred action: policymakers in developing countries made strenuous efforts to strengthen their public sector balance sheets during the 2000s: reducing debt/GDP ratios, cutting the amount owed in dollars, accumulating foreign reserves and extending the maturity profile of government bonds. Indeed, the 2000s saw a dramatic improvement in the health of sovereign balance sheets: the average debt/GDP ratio in EM fell from over 60 per cent in the early 2000s to just over 40 per cent nowadays.有关主权资产负债表薄弱的分析结果引发了行动:在本世纪头10年,发展中国家的政策制定者在强化公共部门的资产负债表方面下了很大功夫:降低债务/GDP比率,减少美元债务数量,积累外汇储备,从总体上延长政府债券的年期。的确,在本世纪头10年里,主权资产负债表的健康状况大为好转:新兴市场的平均债务/GDP比率从21世纪初的60%以上,降低到如今的略高于40%。That felt like enough, since the 2000s wrapped these countries in the warm embrace of rapid Chinese growth, plenty of external financing, and unusually strong import growth in the developed world. So, structural reform was crowded out by an intellectual emphasis on the central importance of balance sheets, aided by an exceptionally friendly world economy that made EM policymakers feel that whatever it was they were doing, it was working.这给人的感觉是足够了,因为在本世纪头10年里,这些国家极大地受益于中国快速增长、充足外部资金和异常强劲的发达世界进口增长。结构性改革被排挤掉了,因为学术界强调资产负债表的核心重要性,而极其有利的世界经济促使新兴市场的政策制定者觉得,无论他们在做什么,他们的行动都很灵验。Now that the global economic temperature is much colder, what we’re learning is that having a strong sovereign balance sheet is at best a necessary – but not a sufficient – condition for enjoying stable growth. A business climate that supports animal spirits is needed too, more so today than any time in the recent past.现在既然全球经济温度低了很多,我们学到的教益是,拥有强大的主权资产负债表充其量是享有稳定增长的必要条件,而不是充分条件。还需要一种持“动物精神”的商业氛围,与近年任何时候相比,如今更是如此。But it takes time for countries to reach that conclusion. Look at Mexico, for example. One reason that Mexicans ended up electing a President in 2012 who was committed to proper structural reform – in energy, telecoms, education and labour above all – was that its economic performance had been dismal for over 30 years.但各国需要一定的时间才能得出这个结论。以墨西哥为例。2012年,墨西哥人选出了一位承诺认真推行结构性改革(最重要的是能源、电信、教育以及劳动力市场改革)的总统,原因之一在于,该国的经济表现令人沮丧已有30余年了。The 1980s were ‘lost’ as a result of a debt crisis; the 1990s were overshadowed by China’s 1993 devaluation and the subsequent Tequila crisis in late 1994; and in the 2000s Mexico was one of the few countries in the developing world that failed to benefit from China’s rise, since China’s membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 allowed its exporters to capture market share from, above all, Mexico. Between 1980 and 2010, emerging economies as a whole enjoyed GDP growth of 4.5 per cent on average. Mexico rubbed along with just 2.6 per cent. And it was this persistently weak economic performance which gave the country plenty of time to come up with a diagnosis, and elect a President aiming to do something about it (not that his effort has been an unqualified success).一场债务危机使墨西哥“失去了”上世纪80年代;90年代,墨西哥受到1993年中国人民币贬值和1994年末特基拉危机的影响;本世纪头10年,墨西哥是未能受益于中国崛起的少数发展中国家之一,因为2001年中国加入世贸组织(WTO)使得中国出口商从其他国家那里夺取了市场份额,首当其冲的便是墨西哥。1980年至2010年间,新兴经济体整体的平均GDP增速达到4.5%。墨西哥则只有2.6%。正是这种持续疲弱的经济表现,让墨西哥举国上下有很多时间得出诊断结果,最终选举出一位有意采取相应行动的总统(当然他的努力也并未取得绝对成功)。Let’s hope that it doesn’t take too many countries a generation to discover the need for structural reforms, or the ‘growth model’ may stay broken for a depressingly long time.我们希望,不要有太多的国家需要一代人的时间才能发现结构性改革的必要性,否则的话,当前“增长模式”或许会失灵很久。But here’s a dilemma. One of the gravest structural deficiencies in EM is poor infrastructure. Yet improving this will almost certainly require funding from the public sector. So countries may find themselves with a difficult choice: is it better to maintain as strong a public balance sheet as possible in order to keep your country’s borrowing costs low? Or is it worth tolerating higher public debt levels in order to finance infrastructure? The outlook for EM growth would be a lot more rosy if there was an easy answer to that question.但这里有个两难。新兴市场的最严重结构性缺陷之一是基础设施薄弱。但是,改善基础设施将几乎肯定需要公共部门资金。所以,这些国家或许会发现自己面临一个棘手选择:维持尽可能强大的公共部门资产负债表、以便把国家的借款成本保持在低水平?还是忍受更高的公共债务水平、以便为完善基础设施提供资金持?如果这个问题有轻松的,新兴市场增长的前景就将美好得多。 /201508/395823青岛市人民医院妇科简介 Investors have expressed disappointment over slow progress on easing capital controls and other financial reforms in the zone in the year since its launch. Data released on Friday confirmed the FTZ was a long way from becoming an international finance hub.投资者表示,对于上海自由贸易区(FTZ)成立一年来在放松资本管制和推行其他金融改革方面进展缓慢,他们感到失望。周五发布的数据实,上海自贸区距离成为国际金融中心还很遥远。Cross-border renminbi fund flows totalled Rmb156bn (bn), just 15 per cent of Shanghai’s total cross-border flows, Zheng Yang, director of the Shanghai financial services office, said in a briefing.上海市金融务办公室主任郑杨在简报中表示,跨境人民币资金流动总额为1560亿元(合250亿美元),仅占全市总量的15%。But Mr Zheng also hinted that more substantive changes may yet be in the pipeline, so long as they do not lead to volatile fund flows.但郑杨也暗示,会有更多实质性变化,只要这些变化不导致资金流动异常波动。“Free-trade [bank] accounts haven’t become a channel for hot money and arbitrage. Everything is normal. This is good preparation for the next step of conducting stress tests on capital-account opening,” he said.他说:“自由贸易账户资金流动正常,没有成为热钱流入套利和资金向内渗透的管道,这为下一步资本市场压力测试提供条件。”Last December the central bank established a framework for special FTZ bank accounts that enable easy transfer between overseas accounts. The rules also appeared to allow for transfers between FTZ accounts and bank accounts in the rest of China under certain conditions. In practice, however, regulators have been cautious about opening that channel.去年12月,中国央行为自贸区账户创建了一套制度,让海外账户之间能够方便地转账。这些规则看上去也允许自贸区账户与中国其他地区账户在某些情况下相互转账。不过,监管者在实践中对放开这一渠道一直很谨慎。“Right now moving funds from inside the FTZ to outside isn’t allowed,” Zhou Hong, president of the FTZ branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, told the Financial Times. “We call it the ‘second line’. Strictly speaking it’s still considered a cross-border transfer. Permeability is limited.”“眼下从自贸区内向外转移资金是不允许的。”中国工商(IC)自贸区分行行长周宏表示。“我们称之为‘二线’。严格来说它仍被视为跨境转账。资金渗透能力有限。”Such transfers are allowed only if the funds are used for trade or another approved purpose, she added.她补充表示,这种转账只在资金用途为贸易或另一种被批准的目的时才被允许。Indeed, regulators remain concerned about controlling the flow of speculative capital across borders. On Thursday the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said an investigation launched in April last year revealed bn in fake trade used as a cover for illicit fund flows.事实上,监管机构仍关注于控制投机资金的跨境流动。周四,国家外汇(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)表示,去年4月开启的一项调查已查出100亿美元的虚假贸易被用于掩护非法资金流动。Some analysts remain cynical about the prospects for more broad-based capital-account opening, arguing that the creation of dedicated zones is a means to strengthen government control rather than relinquishing it.一些分析师仍然对更广泛的资本账户放开前景感到怀疑。他们认为,政府设立特别区域是为了加强管控,而不是放弃管控。“These zones create corporate black boxes through which the anointed may flow money in and out of China,” Anne Stevenson-Yang, founder of Beijing-based consultancy J Capital Research, wrote in a note on Monday. “Clear rules have not been promulgated; the regime is, as they say, crossing the river by feeling for stones. That means that some people have more flexibility than others, all under supervision of regulators who decide passage on a case-by-case basis or at least company-by-company basis.“这些区域制造了企业暗箱,受到‘钦点’的人可以通过暗箱将资金转入和转出中国。”美奇金投资咨询公司(J Capital Research)创始人杨思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)周一在一份简报中指出,“政府并没有公布明确的规则。整个机制是在所谓的摸着石头过河。这意味着一部分人拥有比另一部分人更大的自由,一切都在监管机构的指导下进行,它们按照每个具体案例、或至少每家公司的情况,决定该如何走。”“If there were a general intention to open the capital account and make renminbi into an international currency, either no such filter would be needed or the rules governing the use of these channels would be explicit and transparent.”“如果总体的打算是开放资本账户、让人民币成为国际货币,那么要么不需要设置这些关卡,要么这些渠道会有明确、透明的使用规则。” /201410/332601青岛第二人民医院电话多少

胶州市看妇科炎症多少钱China’s politicians have legitimate historical reasons for expecting the industrialised West to take the lead on dealing with climate change. China is responsible for only 11% of past emissions while the West has flourished from centuries of burning fossil fuels.从历史角度看,中国官员们有理由期望已经高度工业化的西方带头解决气候变化问题。中国只占全球历史总排放量的11%,而西方已通过几个世纪的化石燃料使用实现了繁荣。However, China is now the main decider on the future global temperature and climate of the world, whether it likes it or not.然而,无论中国乐不乐意,它都已成为未来全球气温和气候的主要决定因素。UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon this week invites World Leaders to New York to break the deadlock on negotiating what to do about the international challenge of climate change. This is why my colleagues and I have published our latest annual update on the global carbon budget, to help focus minds. You can view the carbon budget like the housekeeping budget. How much carbon did all countries of the world last year spend, or emit to the atmosphere, and how much have we left to avoid dangerous climate change?联合国秘书长潘基文(Ban Ki-Moon)本周邀请世界各国领导人访问纽约,以期打破全球在应对气候变化问题上的谈判僵局。为此,我和我的同事们发布了最新的年度全球“碳排放预算”报告,希望能帮助大家厘清思路。你可以把“碳排放预算”想象成家庭开预算——全世界所有国家去年花掉了多少预算(或者说向大气中排放了多少二氧化碳)?若要避免危险的气候变化,还有多少预算可以花?We show that measured as CO2 pollution instead of GDP, China is the leading global industrialist. China is not a developing country. In 2013, China put 10 billion tonnes of CO2 pollution into the atmosphere, almost one third of global emissions.我们的报告显示,若不以国内生产总值(GDP)、而以二氧化碳污染量来衡量,中国已是全球主要的工业国家之一,而不再是“发展中国家”。2013年,中国向大气中排放了100亿吨二氧化碳,占全球总排放量的近三分之一。China has been the largest emitter of CO2 pollution since 2006 when it overtook the US. Emissions in China now exceed the combined emissions of the US and Europe. If trends continue along the current trajectory, by 2019 China’s emissions will overtake the US, Europe and India combined.中国的二氧化碳排放量在2006年超过美国,自那以来,中国一直是全球最大的碳排放国。中国的碳排放量如今已超过美国和欧洲的总和。按现在的趋势发展下去,到2019年,中国的碳排放量将超过美国、欧洲和印度的总和。With China’s per capita emissions now larger than those of Europeans and 45% above the world average, it is difficult to argue against a leadership role for China in solving the international stalemate in climate negotiations, even when considering its lower GDP and the fact that 16% of Chinese emissions are from goods manufactured for elsewhere.中国的人均碳排放量如今已超过欧洲,是世界平均水平的1.45倍。即便是考虑到中国人均GDP水平仍然较低、以及中国有16%的碳排放源于为其他地区生产商品,也很难再继续坚持一个主张,即中国无须在打破气候谈判僵局中扮演主要角色。Construction of infrastructure is the major driver of China’s rapid economic and emissions growth. Our global carbon budget shows that emissions from existing infrastructure will lead China and the US to exceed their fair access to the remaining CO2 emissions a on a world per-capita basis. This a is necessary to keep climate change below two degrees warming above pre-industrial temperatures, a limit that is widely supported by scientists and policymakers around the world, including in China.基础设施建设是中国经济增长的主要驱动力,也是碳排放量迅速增长的主要原因。我们的统计显示,在中国和美国,来自现有基础设施的碳排放,会导致这两国的排放量超过它们在全球剩余人均碳排放配额中应占的比例。各国科学家和政策制定者——包括中国在内——普遍认同一点:全球气温上升,应以高出前工业时代的气温2摄氏度为限,而要将气温保持在这一限度内,就必须实施这样的配额。The CO2 emissions a, which gives the world a 66 per cent chance of remaining below 2 degrees is only about one third of that total emitted so far. At current emissions this means that there is just one generation (30 years) before the safeguards to a two-degree limit may be breached.如遵循这一配额,全球气温有66%的几率不超过上述2摄氏度的上限。而这一配额的总量,仅相当于迄今全球二氧化碳总排放量的三分之一。按照现在的排放速度,或许仅仅再有一代人的时间(30年),2摄氏度的上限就会被打破。The global costs of climate change will be borne locally – more flooding and coastal storm surges, more droughts, strains on food production and health. The benefits of cutting carbon emissions are also regional and local, particularly in the case of China.全球气候变化的代价,通常会由一些局部地区承担——那里会出现更多的洪涝灾害、台风和旱灾,对食物生产和人类健康构成挑战。同样,削减碳排放的好处也更多体现在局部地区,特别是就中国而言。Over 1 million deaths can be attributed each year to severe air pollution in China, said the Lancet Medical Journal. Children and old people are most at risk. Achieving ambitious targets for cutting carbon emissions means less air pollution.《柳叶刀》(Lancet)称,中国每年有逾100万人因严重的空气污染死亡。儿童和老年人面对的风险最大。如果中国能实现艰巨的减排目标,意味着空气污染将大幅缓解。Burning cheaper low-grade coal is more polluting. Coal burning in 2010 produced 3 million tonnes of microscopic particulates and 20 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide emissions that penetrate deep into lungs and the blood stream. These fine particles are classified a Group 1 carcinogen by the cancer agency by the World Health Organization.燃烧较便宜的低品位煤炭会造成更大的污染。2010年,中国燃煤排放了300万吨粉尘和2000万吨二氧化硫。这些精细粉尘会渗入人的肺部和血液中,被世界卫生组织(WHO)归为1类致癌物(Group 1 carcinogen)。Premier Li Keqiang in March declared “war against pollution and fight it with the same determination we battled poverty”. Action to fight air pollution, if well designed, also fights climate change and vice versa.今年3月,中国总理李克强曾宣称:“我们要像对贫困宣战一样,坚决向污染宣战。”其实,设计良好的抗污措施,也能有效地缓解气候变化,反之亦然。China could also lead the rest of the world in showing the world how to slash emissions. China has made energy efficiency progress at a scale unequalled anywhere else, but not fast enough. CO2 emissions in China doubled in the past ten years because of surging economic growth fuelled by coal. China currently aims to cut the equivalent of 3 billion tonnes of CO2 in efficiency improvements for the five years to 2015, the same as 60% of US emissions at 2010 levels, but this does not match the scale of Chinese emissions and the urgency of the climate problem.中国还可以起到表率作用,向世界展示如何减排。中国在提高能源使用效率方面取得的进步,超过了其他所有地区,但它进步的速度仍不够快。中国经济增长高度依赖燃煤,过去十年二氧化碳排放量翻了一番。目前,中国的目标是,在截至2015年的5年内,通过提高能源使用效率,将二氧化碳等价排放量减少30亿吨,这相当于美国2010年排放量的60%。不过,这一目标,与中国碳排放的规模、以及气候问题的紧迫性并不相称。China also deploys new technology and penetrates domestic and international markets at speeds unequalled in the West. It leads the world in renewable energy, investing more than one-fifth of the global total for 2012. In 2011, installed renewable capacity was aly twice the US. China#39;s wind turbines and hydropower stations are the world#39;s most productive. A binding international agreement on climate change instantly creates for China a global market for its low carbon technologies.在国内外市场中推广和运用新技术方面,中国的力度也是西方无法比拟的。中国在可再生能源领域的投资领先全球,2012年占全球总投资的五分之一以上。2011年,中国可再生能源装机容量已是美国的两倍。中国风力发电机组和水力发电站的发电量为全世界最高。一旦世界各国在气候变化上达成具有约束力的协议,就立刻会为中国的低碳技术创造一个全球市场。There are many long term economic advantages to implementing a low carbon future in China, with co-benefits to energy security, water security, food security, and therefore human security. In turn, ignoring the rise in global and local carbon emissions threatens access to sufficient food and water, human health and wellbeing and the long-term prosperity of China.一个更为低碳的中国,长期而言能带来许多经济益处,同时能提高能源安全、水资源安全、食品安全,从而有益于人类自身的安全。反过来说,如果忽视全球和中国国内碳排放的增长,将威胁到人类对充足的食品和水的获取、人类的健康和幸福、以及中国的长期繁荣。The global leadership of China is crucial for an international agreement in New York on climate change and the deployment of its low carbon technologies and market knowhow is essential around the world. Strong collective political action on climate change could bring China’s development journey to a new path of cleaner air and energy efficiency. The race is on for China to decouple economic growth from fossil fuel burning. The benefits are immediate for current citizens and for generations not yet born.要想在纽约峰会上就气候变化问题达成国际协议、在全球推广中国的低碳技术和市场经验,中国必须担当起带头人的角色。各国领导人们在抗击气候变化上更加坚定、协调一致,就能将中国的发展引导至一条更清洁、更高效的道路。对中国来说,现在就该加速让经济增长摆脱对化石燃料的依赖。这会给中国带来立竿见影的好处,不论对现在的中国人,还是未来几代人而言。Professor Corinne Le Quéré is an international authority in assessing carbon sources and sinks with the Global Carbon Project. She is Professor of Climate Science and Policy at the University of East Anglia, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and a regular visitor to the Tyndall Centre at Fudan University in Shanghai.作者科琳娜#8226;勒凯雷(Corinne Le Quéré)是全球碳计划(Global Carbon Project)组织评估碳来源和去向方面的国际权威。她是东英吉利大学(University of East Anglia)气候科学与政策研究教授、廷德尔气候变化研究中心(Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)主任、复旦大学(Fudan University)廷德尔中心(Tyndall Centre)定期访问人员。Professor Dabo Guan is an expert in climate change economicsand policy. He is a Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Assessment on Mitigation and a winner of the Philip Leverhulme Prize for outstanding scholars at an international level. He is joining the University of East Anglia as Professor of Climate Change and Development.作者关达是一位气候变化经济学与政策研究方面的专家。他是联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)《第三工作组评估报告:减缓气候变化》(Assessment on Mitigation)的主要作者之一。 /201409/331769齐鲁医院青岛分院做人流要多久 在青岛做人流去那

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