明星资讯腾讯娱乐2019年11月15日 08:37:43

He still applies for jobs, at colleges , high schools always getting rejected. 他还在大学,高中申请工作,但总是被拒绝。We call it Einsteins miracle year . 我们称这为爱因斯坦的奇迹年。It is certainly not a time that he would describe himself as a miracle year.这当然不是他描述自己为奇迹年的时刻。Miracles convey a sense of something happening easily.奇迹会传达一种事情轻松发生的感觉。I dont think that Plank knew that Einsteins patent cleric of the third class. 我不认为普兰克知晓爱因斯坦三级专利师的事情。So he must have then become curious about who this unknown Albert Einstein in Bern was.所以他一定对在伯尔尼这位未知的阿尔伯特;爱因斯坦很好奇。This unknown Einstein is in fact a father of one-year-old son and husband to a quiet and serious fellow student from Swiss Polytechnics - Mileva Mari这位未知的爱因斯坦实际上是一位一岁儿子的父亲及曾经同在瑞士理工学院同学米列娃;马丽奇的丈夫。When he was at the polytechnics in Zurich , He was quite a ladys man. 当他在苏黎世理工学院的时候,他就是一个喜欢向女人献殷勤的男人。He would play his violin at ladies luncheons and cocktail parties so he too quite a few young wemen in this day.他会在女士们的酒会及鸡尾酒会上弹奏他的小提琴,因此他相当手年轻女士们的青睐。But Mileva was kind of besides. 但米列娃却从来不买他的账。注:听力文本来源于普特 201203/175432

THE political class first sat up and paid real attention to the “tea-party” movement two years ago, when its acolytes in Utah ended the career of Bob Bennett, a venerable Republican senator, by denying him the party’s nomination for his re-election bid. If Bob Bennett is not conservative enough, incredulous congressmen asked, who on earth is? One person assumed to have dwelt long and hard on that question is the other, even more venerable Republican senator from Utah, Orrin Hatch, who has been in office since 1977.研究政治的人第一次真正注意茶党运动还数两年前。当时茶党在犹他的门徒拒绝提名江湖地位崇高的鲍勃-本内特竞选连任,直接宣告了他的政治生涯的终结。满脑袋疑问的国会议员们肯定想问,如果本内特还不够保守,到底地球上还有没有人称得上保守了?有一个人在这个问题上费的脑筋比其他人都多,花的时间比其他人都长。这个人就是犹他另一位江湖地位更高的共和党参议员奥林-哈奇。他从1977年就任职至今。On April 21st Mr Hatch survived the test that undid Mr Bennett: he won a ballot for the nomination at the state’s Republican convention. Thanks to the local party’s complicated electoral procedures, he still has to face a tea-party-backed challenger in a primary, to be held in June. It is slightly awkward to be running for a seventh term considering that during his first campaign he denounced his opponent’s three terms as too many. But he has reason to be confident: he came within a whisker of avoiding the primary, falling just 32 votes short of the 60% threshold required to secure the nomination at the convention. Assuming that the primary electorate is less conservative than the diehard lot who attend the convention, and given that Mr Hatch has the edge in fund-raising, he should prevail in the primary too. And what with Utah’s strongly Republican slant, winning the primary more or less guarantees re-election in November.4月21日,哈奇没有在本内特倒下的地方摔跟头:他在州共和党会议的提名投票里赢了。由于该州选举程序复杂,他仍然要在将于六月举行的初选中与茶党人士苦战一番。对他来说,竞逐第七个任期有点尴尬——当初他初出茅庐时,曾经批评对手三任就已经太多了。不过他应该自信满满:他只差32票就可以拿到60%选票,可以直接赢得提名。根据经验推断,初选的选民没有参与党内会议的死忠分子那么保守,加上哈奇在筹款上拥有优势,他在初选中理应取胜。而又由于犹他州十分青睐共和党,赢得初选或多或少就等同于在十一月的大选中胜出,顺利连任了。This muddled outcome puts America’s pundits in a quandary. Had Mr Hatch gone down to defeat, the tea party would have been declared alive and well; had Mr Hatch sailed to victory, it would have been declared moribund. Clearly, it is not as potent and unpredictable a force as it was in 2010. Yet Mr Hatch, aly towards the tanniny end of the Republican spectrum, has survived thus far by significantly strengthening the brew he serves his constituents. His lifetime rating from the Club for Growth, a conservative pressure group, is currently 78%; but in 2010 and 2011 he scored 97% and 99% respectively.这纠结的结果可让美国的各路专家们犯了难。如果哈奇被击败的话,他们大可以宣布茶党运动风头不减当年,如果哈奇大胜,他们又可以说茶党已经是昨日黄花。不过很明显的是,茶党已经不再像2010年那么强大而不可捉摸了。然而本来已经相当保守的哈奇,为了赢得选民芳心还是下了猛料。在保守派游说组织“成长俱乐部”的评分里,他整个政治生涯的是78分;不过在2010和2011年中,他的评分分别是97分和99分。Mr Hatch is not the only Republican grandee to have shifted nimbly rightward. Dick Lugar, a Republican senator from Indiana who is equally venerable (he and Mr Hatch joined the Senate on the same day) and even more embattled, is breathing an unaccustomed amount of fire these days. Even Olympia Snowe, a moderate Republican senator from Maine who recently declared herself so disgusted with the polarisation of Congress that she is not running for re-election this year, has been inching to the right since 2010.哈奇不是唯一一位向右急转弯的共和党大牌,来自印第安纳的迪克-卢加最近也在鼓吹与其立场不符的保守政见。他江湖地位与哈奇平起平坐,同日就任,战况却更是四面楚歌。就连缅因的温和派参议员奥林匹亚-斯诺也在2010年以后渐渐向右靠拢。她早前已经宣布由于受不了国会的两极分化而不会竞逐连任。That does not mean, however, that the tea party is winning the war even if it has lost a few battles. For one thing, even in the giddy days of 2010, the general electorate deemed several of its candidates beyond the pale. And Mr Hatch, for all his conservative bona fides (he has introduced bills in the Senate to amend the constitution to require balanced budgets four times over the years), worked happily with no less a leftie than Edward Kennedy to bring in children’s health insurance and the Americans with Disabilities Act. He voted, too, for TARP, a bill called for by George W. Bush that bailed out banks when the entire financial system seemed on the verge of collapse—as 90 other Republicans did. In short, he is willing to embrace the odd political compromise, which is exactly what the tea party holds against him.然而,这并不能说明茶党失之东隅,收之桑榆。比如说,即使是在2010年那些光夺目的日子里,普罗大众似乎也觉得他们的几名候选人很不靠谱。虽然说哈奇是保守到了骨子里(他在任期间曾经四次提出平衡预算修正案),他仍然曾于爱德华-肯尼迪这样的左翼分子愉快合作,促成了儿童健康保险以及美国残疾人法案。他也对《问题资产纾困法案》投了赞成票。该法案在小布什总统呼吁下通过,紧急援助了业以及整个处于崩溃边缘的金融系统。和哈奇一样投赞成票的还有另外90名共和党人。用一句话总结,他愿意达成临时的政治妥协,这也正是茶党看他不爽的原因。201205/180684

  Science and Technology Mimicry The first sparrowhawk of spring科技 模仿 春天第一只雀鹰To obtain better access to warbler nests, cuckoos mimic raptors为了更好地抢占莺的巢穴,杜鹃通常会模仿成猛禽的样子THE resemblance between cuckoos and sparrowhawks has been a cause of comment since ancient times.杜鹃和雀鹰之间的相似性自古以来就是引发的原因。As the photographs above show, the two birds (cuckoo on the left, sparrowhawk on the right) are similar in size, shape and plumage, and both have a conspicuous pattern of bars on their breasts—a pattern found on many species of hawk, but not on the cuckoos relatives.正如上面的照片显示的两只鸟(左侧的是杜鹃,右侧的是雀鹰),它们在大小,形状和羽毛上都很相似,二者的胸前都有突出的条纹——许多鹰类都有这种类型的条纹,但杜鹃的亲戚中却没有。Until now, though, no one has thought to take that observation any further, and test whether the one is truly mimicking the other.虽然现在还没有人对此进行更深入的观察,并实杜鹃是否真的在模仿对方。Cuckoos would have good reason to do so, since the warblers and other small birds in whose nests they lay their eggs are understandably frightened of hawks, and give them a wide berth.杜鹃有很好的理由去模仿鹰,由于莺和其它的小型鸟类在它们的巢中产卵,自然这些小型鸟类就很害怕鹰,并且对鹰敬而远之。Such leeway would make it easier for a female cuckoo to lay where she chose.这样的空当就给了雌杜鹃自由选择巢穴产卵的机会。Nick Davies and Justin Welbergen, a pair of ornithologists at Cambridge University, have now corrected that omission.尼克?戴维斯(Nick Davies)贾斯汀?韦伯尔根(Justin Welbergen)是剑桥大学的鸟类学专家,它们现在补充了这种遗漏。They have tested the idea that cuckoos mimic hawks—or, at least, that warblers think cuckoos look hawklike.它们已经实了杜鹃会模仿鹰——或者说,至少在莺看来,杜鹃非常像鹰。As they report in the latest edition of Behavioral Ecology, they have found that it is true, but only up to a point.就像它们在最新一期的Behavioral Ecology上报道的那样,它们已经发现这是正确的,但至少在某种程度上可以这么讲。To carry out their test, Dr Davies and Dr Welbergen put stuffed birds near reed-warbler nests, to observe the nestholders reactions.为了进行它们的测试,戴维斯士和韦伯尔根士将几种鸟类标本放到了莺的芦苇巢附近,用来观察这些巢主人的反应。They used three species: sparrowhawks (which are a direct threat to a warblers life), cuckoos (which do not harm adult warblers, but do stop them reproducing successfully) and doves (included as a control, since they pose no threat at all).他们用了三种鸟类:雀鹰(直接威胁莺生命的猛禽),杜鹃(不会威胁成年莺类,但是会顺利地影响莺类的繁殖),还有鸽子(只是作为一个对照,它们不会对莺类造成任何威胁)。The breast of each stuffed bird was adorned with a piece of white silk.每种鸟类的胸前都用一块白色的丝绸装饰。Some pieces of silk were left plain. Others had bars drawn on them with a felt-tip pen.一些丝绸偏左放置。其它条纹则用记号笔画制而成。Once the stuffed birds were in place, the two researchers recorded the reactions of the nestholders.一旦将这些鸟类标本放置好,这两位研究人员就记录巢主人的反应。In particular, they measured how closely the nestholders were willing to approach the stuffed intruder, and also how noisily the intruder was mobbed, in an attempt to drive it away.他们会专门评估这些巢主人对于不速之客的接近程度,以及围攻入侵者并试图将其赶走的激烈场景。The barring, they found, was crucial.他们发现了一个非常关键的例外。Though the warblers could clearly tell the difference between the species (they mobbed the cuckoos most and stayed farthest away from the sparrowhawks),虽然莺类可以很清楚地分辨出这些鸟类的不同(它们主要围攻杜鹃,最大限度地远离雀鹰),in the cases of all three types of stuffed bird those decorated with stripes were approached more cautiously and mobbed less than those without stripes.对于那些装饰了条纹的三种鸟类标本,它们更谨慎地接触,并且围攻那些没有条纹的鸟类。Hawk-like stripes do, then, provoke what is, from a cuckoos point of view, the desired reaction: less of the sort of behaviour that is likely to interfere with her egg-laying mission.从杜鹃的角度来看,鹰状条纹所起的主要作用就是它所希望看到的:如果缺乏这种行为会则会影响到杜鹃的产卵任务。Not perfect mimicry, but good enough to be useful.虽然这种模仿不甚高明,但已经足够用了。Probably, Dr Davies and Dr Welbergen have caught cuckoo and warbler in the middle of an evolutionary arms race.也许戴维斯士和韦伯尔根士已经注意到了杜鹃和莺正处于一个进化的军备竞赛中。Come back in 10,000 years and cuckoos and sparrowhawks may be indistinguishable.回到10000年前,杜鹃和雀鹰或许就难以分辨了。 /201212/215308


  If you have kids, you’ve probably the childrens book: The Very Hungry Caterpillar, see, at least five thousand times. If you haven’t had the pleasure, here’s a brief plot summary. A caterpillarhatches from a small, white egg. Extremely hungry, the caterpillar proceeds to eat through several pieces of fruit, an assortment of junk food, and finally, to clear the palate, a nice green leaf. At the risk of ruining the ending, on the final page the caterpillar turns into a beautiful butterfly.如果你身为人父或身为人母,那你对儿童读物《肚子好饿的毛毛虫》一定不会陌生。如果你还没读过这本书,不要紧,故事讲述了这样一个故事:一条毛毛虫从一个又小又白的卵壳里爬出,饥肠辘辘的毛毛虫狼吞虎咽地咽下不少水果和垃圾食物,最后,还啃下一片可爱的绿树叶来清清肠道。故事的结尾很美满,毛毛虫破茧成蝶!Good plot, great characterization, enticing illustrations. But it leaves out the most exciting part–plant-insect warfare. In the real world, some caterpillars and plants engage in a deadly struggle for survival. We’re talking full-scale battle, involving chemical weapons no less.故事情节很好,文笔细腻,插图精美。但是遗漏了最精的环节:植物大战毛毛虫。在现实中,毛毛虫和植物为求生存而殊死搏斗,而全面战争肯定少不了化学武器。下面我们就来谈谈吧!Scientists have known for some time that many plants protect themselves from insect attacks by producing toxins that either ward off or kill insects when they attempt to have the plant for lunch. What scientists have only recently discovered, however, is that the common caterpillar is not without its own arsenal of chemical agents. According to recent studies, a caterpillar can sense when a plant is about to unleash its chemical weapons and counter by producing anti-toxins to neutralize the plant’s attack.科学家很早就发现,一些植物释放或分泌有毒物质,击退视植物为午餐的昆虫,以求自保;而这些有毒物质有时是致命的。直到最近,科学家才发现原来毛毛虫普遍也有自己的“化学兵工厂”。据最新研究表明,毛毛虫可以感应植物何时准备释放“化学武器”,而分泌有毒物质抗体,与植物抗衡。So far, caterpillars seem to have the upper hand. Although different plants produce a wide variety of toxins, many ultimately rely on two main chemicals. Since caterpillars have evolved to neutralize these chemicals, they are able to infest over one-hundred toxin-producing plant species across the ed States.目前,毛毛虫稍占上风。虽然,千差万别的植物释放的有毒物质品种繁多,但是主要归结于两大类。而毛毛虫进化得足以抵御这些化学物质,足以自如应对全美上百种有毒植物。 /201303/229157

  Science and Technology科技Computer-generated imagery计算机图像生成技术Fabricating fabric虚拟面料How to generate more realistic images of clothes如何生成更逼真的衣物图像FILMS like ;Captain America;, ;Tron Legacy; and ;The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; have shown that it is possible to use computer-generated imagery (CGI) to make actors look younger, older or wimpier than they actually are, in a surprisingly realistic manner.电影《美国上尉》、《创战记》和《本杰明?巴顿奇事》表明计算机图像生成技术能以惊人的逼真手法使演员看上去比实际更年轻、老态或懦弱。At least, it is possible if those altered actors are kept at a suitable distance from the viewer.这种效果至少在那些被改造过的演员与观众保持合适距离时能够实现。The difficulty of recreating the textures of both skin and fabric means the effect is less convincing when seen close up.皮肤和面料纹理重建的困难在于它们被放大观看时,效果并不理想。The reason is that, whereas it is possible to simulate realistically the forces which make virtual skin and fabric hang, bend, flap and stretch, recreating the subtle ways they reflect light has so far proved extremely tricky.原因在于尽管计算机能够真实地模拟使虚拟皮肤及面料产生悬挂、弯曲、飘动和拉伸的外力,但迄今为止想要找到构建反射光的精妙方法仍是极为困难的事情。The shimmer and sheen of both fabric and skin depend on the geometry of their internal structures—the exact arrangement of ths or protein fibres.皮肤和面料的微光及光泽都取决于它们内部的几何结构——织线或蛋白纤维的精确排列。This is hard to model accurately.这种模型很难精确地建立。Steve Marschner and his colleagues at Cornell University have, though, come up with a way to get round that problem.不过康奈尔大学的史蒂夫?马施纳及其同事们发现了一个解决此问题的方法。Instead of modelling, they are copying.他们不是建立模型而是采用拷贝技术。They are using computerised tomography (CT) to analyse the structures of fabrics at high resolution and then plugging the results into CGI.他们利用电脑断层扫描术(简称CT)以高分辨率分析面料的结构,然后将结果输入到计算机影像生成系统。That, allied to the laws of optics and some heavy-duty computer power, seems to do the trick.结合光学定律和强大的计算机处理能力,这种方法似乎能够达到理想效果。Computerised tomography is most familiar as a medical technique for examining peoples insides.;电脑断层扫描术;是最广为人知的医学技术,主要用于人体内部检查。Like classical radiology it uses X-rays.与传统放射学相同,它也使用X射线。But because the image is constructed inside a computer using shots taken from many different directions, rather than being a single exposure recorded on photographic film, CT can capture fine detail and record soft tissues that are invisible to classical radiology.但是因为计算机构建内部图像时采集的是多角度拍摄数据,而不是靠摄影胶片上的单一曝光影像,所以电脑断层扫描术能够捕捉细节并记录下传统放射学无法看到的软组织。Dr Marschner and his colleagues used a benchtop version of CT, developed for looking at the structure of materials rather than at human bodies, for their experiment.马施纳士及其同事们采用了台式版本的CT进行实验,这种CT是被研制用来观察材料结构而非人体的。Employing doses of X-rays many times stronger than those used to study people, they obtained high-resolution information about small pieces of fabric.使用比人体研究高数倍的X射线剂量,他们获得了小块面料的高分辨率信息。Computerised tomography allows the three-dimensional structure of the fibres in such scraps to be recorded, with all their kinks and imperfections.;电脑断层扫描术;能够记录零碎面料的三维结构和所有的扭结和缺陷。A number of small pieces can then be patched together into an entire garment inside a computer, in the same way that a handful of actors are turned into a CGI crowd.然后计算机将大量细碎面料拼凑成一件完整的衣,采用同样方法,可将少数演员转换成电脑合成人像。But because the internal structure of each bit of the garment matches that of a real piece of cloth, the way light will play on it can be calculated far more realistically than if it were just a computer model of what the interior of cloth is thought to look like.但是因为这件装每片面料的内部结构都与真实布料匹配,因此与仅是看上去象布料的计算机衣模型相比,光线在其上的表现效果能够更加逼真。Demonstrating the results of their technique at the SIGGRAPH computer-graphics conference in Vancouver this week, Dr Marschner and his colleagues showed realistic renderings of felt, gaberdine, silk and velvet.本周,马施纳士及其同事们将他们的技术成果在温哥华举行的计算机图形会议上展示,并向人们演示了毛毡、华达呢、丝绸和天鹅绒的逼真效果图。Moreover, their renderings remain realistic even when viewed close up.此外,他们的效果图即使被放大观看依然很逼真。Sadly, skin is still beyond them.但可惜的是,他们仍然无法让皮肤实现这样的效果。The high intensity of the X-rays involved would be too damaging for use on a living human being, and a corpse would probably not produce the right results.因为高强度的X射线会对人体造成很大损伤,而采用尸体实验可能得不到正确的结果。But once the rendering technique has been speeded up (at the moment it is still a bit slow and clunky), the swish of a virtual cloak or the doffing of a computerised hat should look far more realistic than it does now.但是一旦绘图技术突飞猛进(目前技术仍有些缓慢和粗陋),虚拟斗篷的抖动或电脑生成帽子的脱落动作会比现在看上去更为逼真。In the meantime, according to Dr Marschners colleague Kavita Bala, the technology might have an application in online retailing.同时,马施纳士的同事卡维塔?巴拉表示这项技术可能会在网上零售业得到应用。At the moment, people buying clothes over the internet have only standard photographs to help them choose their purchases.目前,人们在网上购买衣物仅能通过浏览标准图片帮助选购。Using CT-based computer graphics might, paradoxically, give a better idea of what the material an item of clothing is made from is really like than can be garnered from a boring, old photograph of the original.相反,基于电脑断层扫描术的计算机图形技术可能提供了一个更好的办法,人们能够看到一件衣所使用材料的真实质地,而无须将令人生厌,老旧的原物照片收集来观看。 /201211/207628



  Business商业Physical attractiveness and careers体貌魅力和事业Dont hate me because Im beautiful美丽不是错Attractive women should not include a photo with a job application魅力女性不应在其申请表中添加照片AT WORK, as in life, attractive women get a lot of the breaks.工作场和生活中一样,魅力女人总是占有优势。Studies have shown that they are more likely to be promoted than their plain-Jane colleagues.研究表明,她们总是比相貌平平的同事更容易获得升职机会。Because people tend to project positive traits onto them, such as sensitivity and poise, they may also be at an advantage in job interviews.因为人们倾向于将正向的优点投加到她们身上,比如敏感,镇静。漂亮女人在工作面试中也处于优势地位。The only downside to hotness is having to fend off ghastly male colleagues; or so many people think.热辣魅力十足的唯一不足就是她们不得不试图避开病态的的男同事;至少很多人这样认为。But research by two Israelis suggests otherwise.但两位以色列学者的研究表明,情况恰恰相反。Bradley Ruffle at Ben-Gurion University and Zeev Shtudiner at Ariel University Centre looked at what happens when job hunters include photos with their curricula vitae, as is the norm in much of Europe and Asia.班古里昂大学的Bradley Ruffle和艾瑞尔撒马利亚中心大学的Zeev Shtudiner研究了,在简历中添加照片的求职者的境遇,而添加照片在欧洲和亚洲都是惯例。The pair sent fictional applications to over 2,500 real-life vacancies.研究组给超过2500个职位空缺发送虚构的申请。For each job, they sent two very similar résumés, one with a photo, one without. Subjects had previously been graded for their attractiveness.每个职位,研究员都发送了两份相似的简历,一份有照片,一份没有。而发送之前,会根据简历照片的漂亮程度打分。For men, the results were as expected.对男性来讲,研究结果是意料之中的。Hunks were more likely to be called for an interview if they included a photo.富有魅力的健美男子如果添加照片则更容易进入面试阶段。Ugly men were better off not including one.丑男不添加照片则会有更好的结果。However, for women this was reversed.但是,对女性来说,结果恰恰相反的。Attractive females were less likely to be offered an interview if they included a mugshot.漂亮女人如果贴上靓照, 则更不容易进入面试阶段。When applying directly to a company (rather than through an agency) an attractive woman would need to send out 11 CVs on average before getting an interview; an equally qualified plain one just seven.在直接申请进入公司(而不是通过中介)的情况中,漂亮女性平均需要递送11份简历才得获得机会面试,而姿色平平的女人只用递送7份简历就可以了。At first, Mr Ruffle considered what he calls the ;dumb-blonde hypothesis;—that people assume beautiful women to be stupid.首先,Ruffle考虑了他自己称为;美女低智商假说;--人们认为漂亮女人是愚蠢的。However, the photos had also been rated on how intelligent people thought each subject looked; there was no correlation between perceived intellect and pulchritude.但是,照片也对其看起来是否聪明进行评分;发现在所谓的看起来的聪明和魅力之间并没有联系。So the cause of the discrimination must lie elsewhere.所以偏见的根源肯定来自于其他方面。Human resources departments tend to be staffed mostly by women.人力资源部主要由女性雇员组成。Indeed, in the Israeli study, 93% of those tasked with selecting whom to invite for an interview were female.事实上,在以色列的这项研究中,肩负挑选简历,确定申请人是否进入面试阶段工作的93%都是由女性担任的。The researchers unavoidable-and unpalatable-conclusion is that old-fashioned jealousy led the women to discriminate against pretty candidates.研究人员不得不得出一项令人不快的结论,那就是老套的嫉妒心使女性对漂亮的申请者产生偏见。So should attractive women simply attach photos that make them look dowdy?所以漂亮女士就应该在简历里贴上自己的邋遢照片吗?No. Better, says Mr Ruffle, to discourage the practice of including a photo altogether.不要。 Ruffle 认为更好的办法是不在简历中添加照片。Companies might even consider the anonymous model used in the Belgian public sector, where CVs do not even include the candidates name.多家公司甚至认为,比利时公共部门招聘采取的匿名模式更好,那就是在简历中甚至连名字都不写。 /201210/205408。


  WITH the euro crisis in abeyance, high oil prices have become the latest source of worry for the world economy. ;Oil is the new Greece; is a typical headline on a recent report by HS analysts. The fear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy; tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crude shot up by more than a barrel on March 1st, to 8, after an Iranian press report that explosions had destroyed a vital Saudi Arabian oil pipeline. It fell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at 5, crude is still 16% costlier than at the start of the year.随着欧元危机的缓解,高油价成了世界经济的新忧虑之源。;石油就是新的希腊;这一代表性的题目出现在了汇丰的分析员最近的一份报告中。恐慌是可以理解的,伊朗局势很紧张,原有市场命悬一线。三月一号,伊朗媒体报道了爆炸摧毁了沙特阿拉伯一条重要的输油管道后,布伦特原油价格窜升到了128美元,每桶涨了5美元多,之后沙特否认了该说法,油价又跌到了125美元,不过这仍比年初贵16%。Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is driving up the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? And what damage could plausible future increases do?评估油老大的风险敞口意味着回答四个问题:什么推高了油价?它能涨多高?目前可能的经济影响有什么?还有未来不确定的增长会造成什么危害?The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to global growth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequent explanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. In recent months the worldrsquo;s big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expanded quantitative easing (printing money to buy bonds) or promised to keep rates low for longer. This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets, especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than the enactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE (see Buttonwood). Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a rise in oil inventories;exactly the opposite of what has happened.高油价的源头至关重要。比如,像供应异动对全球经济造成的危害就比需求走强型油价攀升大。对于目前的上涨,一个常被用到的解释就是央行的慷慨救助推升了油价。在近几个月里,全球各大央行不是在注入流动性,增加量化宽松(印钱买国债),就是在保延长保持低利率的期限。就像争论的那样,廉价资金(不只是低息贷款,还有货币的贬值等)的涌入早把投资者推到了硬资产那边,特别是石油那里。不过因为市场是有预测性的,所以是量化宽松的宣布提升了油价,而不是实施。确实,上个月美联储主席本伯南克宣布没有下一轮量化宽松,是让市场很失望的。另外,如果价格上涨是由投机者造成的,你将会看到原油库存的增加;;这完全与事实背道而驰。Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, which in turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. The recent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: a euro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and Americarsquo;s recovery seems on stronger ground.各大央行可能会通过提升全球增长预期来直接影响油价,而预期增长也会反过来撑原油需求的预期。有详细的据持该论点。最近的油价上升是伴随着对全球经济过分乐观的:欧元区的大灾变和中国经济的硬着陆的都不太可能了,而且美国的复苏看起来也在稳步增强。But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver of dearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than 1m barrels a day (b/d) of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from a pipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, have knocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil is temporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a payment dispute with China.不过,些许的美好增长前景只是故事的一部分。油老大更为重要的驱动力在于供应缺损。在近几个月里,原油市场每天可能总共损失一百万桶。从与南苏丹的管道纠纷到北海的机械故障,各种各样的非伊朗性问题每天就能搞砸70万桶供应。其余的每天50多万桶伊朗原油就因为欧盟的处罚和与中国的付纠纷,暂时的离开了市场。The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. The extent of OPECrsquo;s spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, a near-record high (see chart 1). And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions if Iran were ever to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17m barrels of oil pass every day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure would imply a disruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, for instance, involved less than 5m b/d.零散供给的缓冲作用挺弱的。石油类股票价格在发达国家创五年内新低,石油输出国组织OPEC的备用生产能力也不确定,沙特阿拉伯现在每天都抽1千万桶,也创了近期新高(见图一)。如果伊朗要封锁霍尔木兹海峡进行报复,这就是对供给损毁相当大的威胁,每天有一千七百万原油通过霍尔木兹海峡,占全球供给的20%多。即使是短暂封锁造成的供应缩减也会使以前的石油危机相形见绌,例如,1973年阿拉伯的原油禁运每天才不到5百万桶。Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckons that the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around 8 a barrel. He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iran improve, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to 0.区分这些种类繁多的因素是不容易的,但高盛的杰佛里库瑞Jeffrey Currie猜测,供求的基本面就把油价推升到了每桶118美元。他认为剩下的那些涨幅归根于对于伊朗的恐惧。如果这样,就应该改善与伊朗的关系,油价就能下降几美元,但也在120美元左右。Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in the first year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, who tend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvements elsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects for global growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.从全球角度来看,油价上涨带来的危害可能要小点。根据经验,油价持续上升10%在第一年会削掉全球增长的0.2%,这主要是因为油老大把收益从消费者转移到了生产者,而生产者倾向于消费少点。对于现在,任何影响几乎都超过了其他方面的改善,尤其在欧债危机缓解上面。撇开油老大,全球经济前景还是比年初时候的好一些。But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a net importer which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a increase in oil prices (which corresponds to a 25-cent rise in the price of petrol) knocks around 0.2% off output in the first year and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that is widely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.不过,油价的影响对每个国家经济增长和通货膨胀的影响都是不一样的。美国,作为一个净输入国对油品征税较轻,一般规则是油价上升10美元(相当于每公升涨25分)第一年的产出减少0.2%,第二年减少0.5%。这将令一个今年预期增长超过2%的经济体发展放缓,但不会倾覆。There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil than in recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Rising employment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And Americarsquo;s economy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oil consumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.无论如何,美国比过去几年对油老大都更有抗逆性是有一些原因的。现在的油价蹿升比11年和08年的都弱。美国经济不再是那么能源集中型的了,而且对进口的依赖也更小了。在过去的两年里,原油消耗减小了,但GDP依然增长。Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports are well below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oil stays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas prices have plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heating unusually low. In January the share of consumersrsquo; spending on energy products was the second-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spiking oil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.美国人更少开车了,而且他们也在购买节能型车辆。原油净进口量远低于05年的峰值,这就意味着美国人花在油老大身上的钱更多地留在了美国国内。对储量丰富的天然气的开发也意味着天然气价格的下降。尽管伴随着一个异常寒冷的冬天,这也令家庭取暖费非常低廉。一月份消费者在能源类产品上的出比例为50年来的第二低位。这些原因虽然不能说明美国对于油价飚升的敏感性不强,但意味着目前油价上涨的影响需要重新评估。Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, have typically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time they may be relatively more affected, because most economies are aly stagnant or shrinking. Worse, Europersquo;s weakest peripheral economies are also some of the biggest net importers (see chart 2). Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, of which 88% is oil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a big jump could spawn a deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.欧洲则无所遁形。欧洲各国比美国对原油征税重,他们早就看到过油价变化对经济增长的一些影响。这次他们可能会受到更大的干扰,因为很多经济体已经陷入了萎缩和滞胀。更糟的是,欧洲一些衰弱的经济体还是几个最大的原油净进口国(见图二)。比如说希腊,高度依赖进口能源,其中的百分之八十八都是石油。即便是油价现在这个涨幅,也会使欧元区的衰退更加恶化;油价的一个大幅跃升可能酿成更深的衰退,同时也瓦解了市场信心。Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources in the North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially offset by gains in the oil and gas sector itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date could be more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds of sharply falling inflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakers hoped to see the economy improve this year.英国是相对独立的。尽管它也是石油净进口国,不过在北海它有大量的资源。油老大对消费者带来的损失能被本国油气部门的收益所抵消。尽管如此,目前油价上涨影响对英国的危害也是非比寻常的,特别在它降低了通胀大幅下降的可能后。更低的通胀,就是实际收入的增加,是英国决策者今年希望看到的经济改善之一。Barrels, no laughs.筒子,别笑。In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuela to the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and 2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less of a worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of most emerging economiesrsquo; consumption basket, are stable.在新兴经济体,情形更是千差万别。从委内瑞拉到中东,石油出口国都赚了,石油进口国将会看到更加恶化的贸易差额。在08年和11年,油老大在新兴经济体的主要影响表现在通胀上。现在就没那么担心了,这主要是因为,在新兴经济体消费篮子中比重剧增的食品价格比较稳定。But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emerging economies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil but also from the weakening of European export markets.但是某些国家将会面临一些问题。短期来看,一些受到重创的国家将会在东欧。它们不仅要忍受高油价,还要遭受欧洲出口市场的恶化。India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, so inflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To the extent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulates;and heavily subsidises;the price of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only 31% since January , whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. The difference is a result of subsidies, frustrating Indiarsquo;s efforts to reduce its budget deficit.印度也是个麻烦。举个例子,燃料是印度大宗商品指数的重要组成部分,因为油价会传导到国内燃料成本,所以通胀就会上升。到了承受不了的程度,预算会被重创。印度规范了;;同时也着重补贴;;柴油和煤油的价格。据德意志称,从09年一月起,按卢比计算的原油价格增长了180% ,而柴油价格只涨了31%。这个差距是补贴的结果,不过也浪费了印度缩减预算赤字的努力。So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to global growth. But it is not helping Europersquo;s more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.所以,石油并不是新的希腊。目前来看,昂贵的石油几乎对全球增长没有什么危害,但它也没有帮助欧洲脆弱的经济。如果霍尔木兹海峡受到威胁,由此产生的油价飚升将为全球经济复苏画上一个休止符。201203/175706

  Scoop That Poop我好“无辜”的Actually, dog poop turns out to have a pretty big environmental impact. If you think that two in five households in the U.S. have at least one dog and that about forty percent of Americans dont clean up after their pooches, well, all that poop really adds up. In fact, its what scientists call the Fido hypothesis.便便严重污染环境。如果美国2/5家庭就养一只且当中大约40%的主人不收拾的便便。所有这些便便加起来也就是科学家说的“”假说。(Fido是对通用的称呼)。Hey, my dogs name is Fido.我的就叫Fido。They conjecture that a lot of that waste ends up in waterways. Recent studies, in fact, suggest that dogs are in third or fourth place on the list of contributors to bacteria in water. Talk about gross—fecal matter is full of disease-causing bacteria like E. Coli, salmonella, and giardia.科学家推想,水道阻塞的罪魁祸首就是这些便便。近日有研究表明,造成水里滋生细菌的“元凶”排第三或第四。令人作恶的这些细菌可以致癌,比如:大肠埃希菌、沙门氏菌、鞭毛虫Now that bacteria-tracking methods have gotten better, scientists estimate that in some areas, 20 to 30 percent of the bacteria in a stream comes from dogs.细菌源追踪技术的日臻完善,科学家估计,部分地区20%到30%的细菌是由造成的。Really? That cant be good!真的吗?那可不妙!And the thing is, pollution from dogs is relatively easy to control. All you have to do is scoop when they poop.其实,造成的环境污染相对来说很容易避免,你需要做的只是在将的便便铲干净。 /201210/205271

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