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时间:2019年10月18日 03:21:47

Well that took longer than it should have. The UK government has finally started selling down its 78 per cent stake in Royal Bank of Scotland. It should have started the process years ago. The shares closed at 338p on Monday. In August 2013 they were trading at around 340p, and in the intervening period there have been no dividends. About 31bn of UK taxpayers’ money has been tied up for two years in the bank, with no return. The public would have done better had its money been in a savings account, despite the woefully-low interest rates on offer. The government, it seems, is not a good allocator of investment capital.这件事本不该花这么长时间。英国政府终于开始出售其所持的苏格兰皇家(RBS) 78%的股份。它本该在数年前就开始这么做。周一,该行股票收于每股338便士。2013年8月,股价约为每股340便士,而且在政府干预期间未派发任何股息。约310亿英镑的英国纳税人资金被锁定在该行股份上长达两年,没有获得任何回报。如果当时把这些钱放在储蓄账户里,公众的收益原本还会高一些,尽管提供的利率低得可怜。看起来,英国政府并不擅长配置投资资本。An earlier sale would have been beneficial all around. Lloyds Banking Groupshares have risen 11 per cent since the government started selling down its stake in September 2013. In the same period, RBS has lost 7 per cent. True, RBS has been in a much weaker position than Lloyds. But the government stake, and the real (and realised) threat of political intervention in the bank has been a drag on the share price. Freed of that risk, the shares might have performed much better. And by selling down the stake earlier, the government might have enabled RBS to raise equity on the capital markets. It has been unable to do that (imagine the outcry if the government had ended up putting more money into RBS), so it has had to sell assets such as Citizens, its US bank, instead.更早一些出售原本对各方都有利。劳埃德集团(Lloyds Banking Group)股价在英国政府2013年9月开始减持以来已上涨11%。同一时期,苏格兰皇家的股价下跌了7%。没错,这与劳埃德相比,苏格兰皇家的状况一直疲弱得多。但政府持股以及政治干预该行的切实威胁(这种威胁最终变成了现实)一直在拖累该行股价。如果没有这些风险,苏格兰皇家的股价表现可能会好得多。此外,如果英国政府更早一些减持股份,苏格兰皇家原本能够在资本市场筹集股本。但该行一直无法这样做(想象一下如果政府最终要向该行注入更多资金所引发的强烈抗议吧),因此它不得不转而出售资产,例如旗下的美国Citizens。One of the reasons that the government may have been holding back is the risk of being seen to sell at a discount to the “in” price of 502p. But this argument was always a red herring. The in price is irrelevant. The government did not invest in the bank in order to make a profit, it invested in order to avoid the consequences of a collapse. With the threat of a collapse gone, there was little reason to hold on. As any er of the small print of investment literature knows, past prices are no guide to the future. RBS shares may never return to 502p — there is no point assuming that day will eventually arrive. Better for the UK taxpayer to sell out now, and to continue doing so (via quick, cheap institutional placements, rather than lengthy, expensive public offerings) until the stake has gone altogether.英国政府一直不启动减持的原因之一或许是,这么做可能会被人认为是在折价出售(相对于每股502便士的买入价格而言)。但这种论点其实一直是在转移人们的注意力。买入价格无关紧要。英国政府投资该行不是为了盈利,而是为了避免其倒闭。当倒闭威胁消失后,就没什么理由再继续持有了。正如任何读过投资宣传材料附属细则的人所熟知的,过去的价格对未来没有指导意义。苏格兰皇家的股价可能永远回不到每股502便士,也没有必要假设那一天终将到来。对英国纳税人来说,最好是立刻抛出并持续抛出(通过快速、低成本的机构配售,而非漫长、高成本的公开发售),直至彻底出清所持股份。 /201508/390821

China’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, held back by a slowdown in construction and manufacturing as the government seeks to re-engineer the country’s growth model.中国经济在第一季度以6年来最慢的速度扩张,主要受建筑业和制造业放缓的拖累。政府正试图转变中国经济增长模式。Chinese growth underpinned the global economy in the wake of the financial crisis, but it has been slowing year by year since 2011, affecting everything from the price of iron ore to global sales of luxury goods.中国的增长曾在金融危机后撑了全球经济,但自2011年以来逐年放缓,影响了从国际铁矿石价格到全球奢侈品销售的很多领域。For emerging markets that rely on Chinese demand for their commodities, the slowdown is adding to the strain as they brace themselves for the effect of a US interest rate rise that is expected later this year.对那些依赖中国大宗商品需求的新兴市场来说,中国经济增长放缓给它们增加了压力,因为它们正准备应对美国利率上升(预计在今年晚些时候)的影响。China’s gross domestic product grew 7 per cent in the first three months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday — the weakest quarterly expansion since the depths of the global financial crisis in early 2009. China’s economy grew 7.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014.中国国家统计局(NBS)周三表示,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)在2015年前三个月同比增长7%。这是自2009年初全球金融危机最严重时期以来最疲弱的季度扩张。中国经济在2014年第四季度同比增长7.3%。The Chinese government had previously announced a growth target of “around 7 per cent” for 2015. “We have the ability to keep economic operation within the proper range,” Premier Li Keqiang told the Financial Times in an interview on March 31.中国政府此前已宣布2015年增长目标为“7%左右”。中国总理李克强在3月31日接受英国《金融时报》专访时表示,“我们有能力保持经济运行在合理区间。”“This is not going to be easy but we will do our best and we can do it,” Mr Li added in his first interview with a western media organisation since assuming office two years ago.他补充说,“这不是一件容易的事情,但是我们会努力做,而且相信能做到。”自两年前上任以来,这是李克强首次接受西方媒体采访。An economic slowdown in China is widely seen as inevitable but also necessary as the country tries to move from its traditional dependence on smokestack industries towards domestic consumption and services. “We expected the fall in economic growth,” Sheng Laiyun, NBS spokesman, said on Wednesday. “As the economy enters the ‘new normal’, the drop in growth rate is good for structural adjustment and transformation.”随着中国试图摆脱对“烟囱产业”的传统依赖,转向国内消费和务业,中国经济放缓被广泛认为是不可避免的,也是必要的。中国国家统计局发言人、综合统计司司长盛来运周三表示:“这种回落也很正常,因为中国经济进入新常态以后,增速换挡、增速回落一定程度上讲有利于调结构和转方式。”However, policy makers want to avoid an abrupt slowdown that could cause unemployment to spike and trigger a wave of defaults that could threaten financial stability.不过,中国政策制定者希望避免经济突然放缓,因为这可能导致失业率激增,并引发一波债务违约潮,危及金融稳定。 /201504/370538

Chinese industrial action cost Cooper Tire m in the three months to September 30, the Ohio-based company reported, shedding rare light on the economic impact of a labour dispute in China.总部位于美国俄亥俄州的固铂轮胎(Cooper Tire)报告称,中国的劳工行动导致其在截至去年9月30日的3个月期间损失2900万美元。这也让人罕见地一瞥中国劳资纠纷的经济影响。While strikes are common across China, they typically occur at little-known suppliers. On those rare occasions when labour unrest disrupts operations at a large multinational, the impact on a global company’s overall operations is usually not material enough to force disclosure about a specific strike’s financial cost.中国各地尽管经常发生罢工,但通常发生在不知名的供应商中。少数发生在大型跨国公司中的劳工骚乱,对跨国公司整体运营的影响通常又不足以迫使其披露某一次罢工的财务成本。The seven-month industrial action at Cooper’s joint venture Chengshan Tire factory in Shandong province derailed a .4bn bid by Apollo Tyres for Cooper, in what would have been the largest Indian takeover of a US company. It also occurred at a facility that generates as much as one quarter of Cooper’s revenue and profit.发生在位于山东的固铂成山轮胎公司(Cooper Chengshan Tire,固铂旗下的合资公司)的这场为时7个月的罢工,让阿波罗轮胎公司(Apollo Tyres)对固铂24亿美元的收购计划告吹。该笔收购原本会是印度对美国企业规模最大的一笔收购。固铂有高达四分之一的营收和利润来自发生罢工的固铂成山。In a delayed third-quarter earnings report, Cooper said the strike had cost it m in reduced production and a further m in “manufacturing inefficiencies”. The company incurred a further m in expenses related to the failed transaction during the quarter.在这份延迟发布的三季度盈利报告中,固铂表示,罢工导致其因减产损失2200万美元,因“生产效率低下”进一步损失700万美元。固铂在该季度还产生了500万美元与收购交易失败有关的费用。The losses in Shandong contributed to a 25 per cent year-on-year fall in third-quarter sales, to 2m. Operating profit contracted almost 80 per cent compared with 2012, to m. Cooper reported a net loss of 8,000 for the July-September period, compared with a net profit of m a year earlier.受罢工事件的影响,固铂三季度销售额同比下跌25%,至8.32亿美元。营运利润比2012年缩水近80%,至2800万美元。在7-9月期间,固铂报告净亏损16.8万美元,而上年同期该公司报告净盈利7400万美元。Management and the workforce at Chengshan had opposed the proposed takeover by Apollo, arguing that it would saddle Cooper with too much debt.固铂成山的管理层和工人反对阿波罗的收购计划,称收购会让固铂背上太多债务。 /201403/278023


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