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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2020年02月22日 06:11:56
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Science and technology科学与技术Policing治安The aftershocks of crime犯罪余震An idea borrowed from seismology may help to predict criminal activity.从地震学上获取的灵感或许能预测犯罪行为。LOS ANGELES is one of the most under-policed cities in America.洛杉矶是美国警力最不足的城市之一,With a mere 26 officers for every 10,000 residents, the Los Angeles Police Department needs all the help it can get.每一万个市民只分配了26名警察,因此洛杉矶警局急需各方援。That help may be at hand, with a modification of technology used to predict another type of threat that the city is prone to: the aftershocks from earthquakes. Big earthquakes are unpredictable.援也许就近在咫尺,只要将一项技术修改一下便可。这项技术原本是用来预测余震的—这个城市很容易受到的另一种灾难。Once they have happened, however, they are usually followed by further tremors, and the pattern of these is tractable.大地震是无法预测的,但是大地震发生后随之而来的余震模式却是可以掌控的。George Mohler, a mathematician at Santa Clara University, in California, thinks something similar is true of crimes.加利福尼亚州的圣克拉拉大学的数学家乔治·默赫勒认为,余震和犯罪有着相似之处。There is often a pattern of “aftercrimes” in the wake of an initial one.在初始犯罪后,常会尾随一种“犯罪后效应”模式。The similarity with earthquakes intrigued him and he wondered if the mathematical formulas that seismologists employ to predict aftershocks were applicable to aftercrimes, too.这种和地震的相似性激起了他的兴趣,于是他想,如果地震学家应用的预测余震的数学公式应用到犯罪后效应中,又会如何呢?To test this idea, he and a team of researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles, adapted a computer program used by seismologists to calculate the likelihood of aftershocks.为了测试这一想法,他和一队来自加利福尼亚大学的研究人员采用了一套地震学家用来计算余震可能性的电脑程序,They then seeded it with actual LAPD data on 2,803 residential burglaries that occurred in an 18km-by-18km region of the San Fernando valley, one of the city’s largest districts, during 2004.输入了2004年,在圣费尔南多谷中面积为18*18km2的区域里发生的2803起住宅爆窃案的警方数据。Using the seismological algorithms, the computer calculated which city blocks were likely to experience the highest number of burglaries the next day, and thus which 5% of homes within the area were at particular risk of being broken into.通过地震学的运算法则,电脑计算出了哪些街区在第二天可能会遭到大批盗窃,因此区域内5%的住宅都冒有很大被盗的风险。In one test the program accurately identified a high-risk portion of the city in which, had it been adequately patrolled, police could have prevented a quarter of the burglaries that took place in the whole area that day.在一项测试中,这个程序精确地辨识出了该市的一块高风险区,而如果巡逻充足,警方本可以在那一天阻止该地区四分之一的盗窃案。In addition to modelling burglary, Dr Mohler examined three gang rivalries in Los Angeles, using data from 1999 to 2002, and discovered that similar patterns emerge from gang violence as retaliations typically occur within days—and metres—of an initial attack.除了用盗窃案做模型,默赫勒用1999到2002年的数据,也检测了三起洛杉矶的帮派斗争,并发现了相同的模式:在最初的袭击之后,几天内会在邻近区域很典型地发生复仇暴力。That, too, should help police deploy their limited resources more effectively.这也能帮助警方更有效地部署有限的资源。RoboCop move over, then. ComputerCop is coming.机器战警已经过时,现在是电脑战警的时代了。 /201302/225460

Business. 商业。 Women in management. 女性管理者。 A word from your sponsor. 后台一句话的事。 Time for women to stop being shrinking violets at work. 职场女性,从此不再羞答答的开。 ;I DONT know any successful women who havent had a powerful sponsor in their organisation to give them their first big break,; says Avivah Wittenberg-Cox, the boss of 20-first, a consultancy that helps companies put more women into senior jobs. That sentiment is echoed by many people who work in this field. But why do women need so much help? ;在一个组织里,对于女性而言,没有过硬的后台帮助她们完成人生的首次突破,还能够风生水起的,我实在是没咋地见过,;阿维娃·维滕贝格-考克斯,性别顾问公司20-First总裁,如是说。顾问公司20-First帮助很多的公司,让更多的女性做高层领导。她的这一观点得到众多同行的呼应。但是为啥女性需要那么多的帮助呢? Many men who climb the corporate ladder have sponsors, too. Indeed, they find it easier than women to persuade a senior colleague to sponsor them. But women need help more because they are generally more reluctant to promote themselves. They are also less likely to build up useful networks of contacts. 许多女性要想晋升,必须有后台,这一道理同样适用于公司。确实,女性要想劝高层领导帮助自己,不是件太难的事。但是女性需要更多的帮助,原因就是,一般来的来说,她们不愿意推销自己。同时,她们也不大可能去建立一个对自个有用的关系网。 That may help to explain why women, although they now enter white-collar jobs in much the same numbers as men in many countries, still find it so hard to get anywhere near the executive suite. A new report, ;Sponsor Effect: UK;, produced by the Centre for Talent Innovation (CTI), a New York think-tank, offers a detailed picture of the female talent pipeline in Britain, based on a survey of about 2,500 graduate employees, mostly of large companies. It notes that although women in Britain account for 57% of new recruits to white-collar jobs, they make up just 17% of executive directors and a mere 4% of chief executives of the FTSEs 100 biggest companies. 这也解释了这样一个现象,在很多的国家,白领女性的数量跟男性持平,但是女性进入高管还是一个字,难。一份新的报告,《后台效应:英国》,制作者为纽约智囊团人才创新中心(CTI),详述描绘了英国女性人才的分布状况。这份报告的制作,是基于对2500个左右研究生雇员的调查,且她们基本上都来自大公司。它指出,虽然女性新雇员占白领比例57%,但是在富时指数的100个大公司里,执行理事也就17%,首席执行官只有可怜的4%。 It is not that the women lack ambition, says the report. No less than 79% of senior women in the sample said they aspired to a top job and 91% were keen to be promoted. Nor, say the authors, are they necessarily held back by family responsibilities: nearly two in five of those aged 40 or over had no children. Three in five of the over-40s did have children, and talented women who quit work to raise kids are not included in the sample. 不是说女性没有雄性壮志,报告讲。调查者中,多达79%的大龄女性表示希望成为高管,91%希望得到晋升。作者称,家庭责任并不一定会拖累她们:年龄在40或是以上的,接近五分之二,是没有孩子的,有五分之三的女性是有孩子的,这个确实不假。那些为了照顾孩子而放弃工作的才女们并不在这个范围之内。 Still, the surveys main finding is striking. Only 16% of the sample had sponsors, defined as people several levels above them who give them career advice, introduce them to contacts and help them get promotions. Having a sponsor dramatically improves a womans career prospects. 仍然,这个调查的主要发现还是会吓人一跳。调查者中,只有16%的人有后台,后台的意思指的是那些比她们的位子要高那么几级的人,在工作当中给予她们建议,给她们接触的机会,帮助她们晋升。有个后台,女性在职场上的路要好走非常多。 The British report is a follow-on from a similar study by the CTI on America, ;The Sponsor Effect;, published last year by the Harvard Business Review. The CTI is now working on India; Germany may come after that. It is also preparing a ;road map; to make it easier for women everywhere to find sponsors. 这份英国报告,其实是美国CTI的一份类似研究的后续。这份研究的名称为《后台效应》,去年在期刊《哈佛商业》上出版。CTI现在正在对印度进行研究;印度之后可能就是德国。CTI同时也在酝酿一幅;公路图;,目的就是为了让各地的女性更好地找到后台。 Sylvia Ann Hewlett, the CTIs boss, who co-wrote the report, says there are some differences between countries (for example, American male bosses are more reluctant than British ones to sponsor younger women, lest they be suspected of an affair, which could wreck their career). But the broad picture is similar everywhere: women underestimate the importance of sponsorship and fail to cultivate business relationships effectively. This may be true, but networking takes time, often after hours. Are women with children equally willing to put in that extra time? 西尔维亚·安·休利特,CTI老板,是此份报告的共同撰写者。她说,各个国家的情况真的还不大一样(比如,美国的男性老板,比起英国的男性老板,就不大愿意帮助年轻的女性,因为这会导致绯闻,对事业不利)。但是从更大范围来看,情况其实差不多:女性低估了后台的力量,并且没能够有效地培养商业关系。这可能是对的,但是关系网的维护还是需要时间的,尤其是下班时间。那么,女性会把跟孩子在一起的时间花在培养关系网上吗? Drawing attention to the problems of women in upper management makes a useful change from the usual lament about the lack of women on boards. The scarcity of both is a symptom of something bigger: a lot of employers neither know nor care how many senior women they have working for them. Studies show a correlation between more women in senior positions and superior company performance, though it is hard to know whether more sexual diversity improves performance or top-notch firms promote more women. 把注意力集中到高管女性的问题上,而不是像往常一样,哀叹董事会的女性怎么就这么少,要有用的多了。高管女性和董事会女性的稀缺只是问题的一个症状,更大的问题是:许多老板对这个有多少女性在为他工作上,不关心,也不在乎。研究显示,女性高管越多,公司的表现越好,这之间是有一定的关系的,虽然还不是很确定,到底是性别多样化促进绩效呢,还是一流的公司更多的提拔女性呢。 How much can sponsorship help? Ms Wittenberg-Cox is glum. She says there have been so many initiatives that many firms suffer from diversity fatigue, but none has dealt with ;the appalling reality of the pipeline;. The only remedy, she reckons, is a change of thinking at the top. 后台到底能有多大用?维滕贝格-考克斯女士不清楚。她说,有太多的公司因为性别单一而缺乏主动性,但是并没有什么人来解决这个;可怕的人才分布事实;。她觉得,唯一的解救方法,恐怕就是高层的变动。 /201209/199775

Luiz Gonzaga you can compare him with Bob Marley in reggae, because he really did the melting of the style, you know.你可以拿路易斯·冈萨加和瑞格舞方面的鲍勃·马利相比,因为他真的融合了这一风格,你知道的。And it became very well known because he recorded it, he played it on the radio in the 40s, 50s,而且因为他对此的记录使它变得非常出名, 在40年代,50年代他曾在广播中表演。so he came up with the new rhythm, popular rhythm.所以他想出了新节奏,受欢迎的节奏。It was a kind of the thing Bob Marley did with reggaeintimism .这是一种鲍勃·马利用瑞格舞风演绎出的新东西。Luiz Gonzaga was the son of a farm worker, whose life was transformed after he had appeared on a radio show in Rio.路易斯·冈萨加是一位农场工人的儿子,他的生活自出现在里约热内卢的一档广播节目后发生了转折。It was hosted by Ary Barroso, but Gonzaga proved that Barroso’s nationalistic samba could be matched by dance music from the northern countryside.这档节目由当时的阿里·巴罗佐主持,但冈萨加明巴罗佐的民族主义桑巴可以匹配北方的乡村舞蹈音乐。Forro music didnt become something rival to samba, but let’s say something as big as samba inside Brazil, but not outside Brazil,弗乐并没有变成桑巴的竞争对手,但是让我们说些在巴西内强过桑巴势头的音乐,而不是巴西以外。 注:听力文本来源于普特 201301/220178

  

  Don: Nice telescope, Yael, what are you looking at?唐:不错的望远镜,雅艾尔,你在看什么?Yale: Bacteria.雅艾尔:细菌。Don: In space?唐:在太空吗?Yale: Not that far out, Don. Scientists recently collected three brand new species of bacteria from the Stratosphere. When I heard about it, I couldnt believe it. Researchers have been using balloon lifted cryosamplers to collect bacteria and fungi from the stratosphere for years.雅艾尔:没那么远,唐。最近科学家们从平流层收集到三种新的细菌品种。当我听说时,我不太相信。多年来,研究人员一直在利用气球举起低温采样器来收集大气中的细菌和真菌。Don: I didnt think that anything can live that high in the amosphere.唐:我不认为在那么高的大气中会有生命存在。Yale: Neither did I. The stratosphere extends from ten to thirty miles above the surface. Thats above the clouds where temperatures can get as cold as minus 76 degrees Fahrenheit, and theres lots of ultra violet radiation.雅艾尔:我以前也是。平流层位于距地表10英里至30英里的高度。那里在云端之上,温度可低至零下76摄氏度,并且有大量的紫外线辐射。Don: So How do they think bacteria got up there?唐:那他们认为细菌是如何到达那里的?Yale: Some scientists think they ride up on particles ejected from volcanoes. Others think bacteria might be sucked through updrafts caused by a special kind of lightning that travels upwards from cloud tops. Forest fires can also cause thunderstorms that toss immense plumes of smoke into the stratosphere. Bacteria could ride on the soot.雅艾尔:有些科学家认为细菌是由火山喷射出的粒子带上去的。还有人则认为,细菌也许是卷入了一种自云层顶端向上运行的特殊闪电造成的上升气流。森林火灾会引起雷暴,将大量浓烟掷入平流层。细菌可能会驾尘而上。Don: And they are the same kind Of bacteria that live here on the surface?唐:那么它们与生活在地表的细菌是同一种类吗?Yale: Some are known species. They have found rod-shaped Bacillus that are very common here as well as Staphylococcus species related to disease causing bacteria. Others are completely new, including two new Bacillus species. Theres also a third group of bacteria found in clumps that cant be cultured in normal bacterial nutrients. So far, they are a puzzle.雅艾尔:有些种类是一样的。已经找到的有非常普遍的杆状杆菌,还有致病细菌——葡萄球菌。 其他的则是完全未知的,包括两个新的杆菌品种。还有第三种细菌,它们成群生长,不能在平常的细菌培养液中培养。到目前为止它仍是个谜。Don: Thats really out of this world, Yael. But you really are trying to see bacteria with your telescope, are you?唐:那真是不可思议,雅艾尔。但你真的在用望眼镜观察细菌,是吗?Yale: No, Don. They are away too small. Im just out enjoying the stars.雅艾尔:不,唐。它们太远,并且太小。我只是在观赏星星。原文译文属!201302/227680。

  Yael:Whats the matter, Don? You look worried.雅艾尔:发生什么事了,唐?你看起来很担忧。Don:Well, Yael, you know how people are always predicting that one day women will be able to have babies without men? It turns out that some species of the Whiptail lizard have figured out how to do this and completely eliminated the male sex.唐:嗯,雅艾尔,人们通常预测,如果有一天没有男人,女人也可以自己生孩子,你知道是怎么回事吗?事实明鞭尾蜥蜴已经做到这一点,并将雄性蜥蜴完全消灭掉了。Yael:You mean that the species is all female?雅艾尔:你是说所有的鞭尾蜥蜴都是雌性?Don:Exactly. The females have the ability to lay eggs that hatch and grow into healthy lizards without needing to be fertilized by a male. The offspring are exact and complete genetic duplicates of the mothers.唐:正是这样。雌性鞭尾蜥蜴能不通过受精就产卵并孵化出健康的小蜥蜴。而其后代的基因与母亲的基因完全一致。Yael:So the females are cloning themselves.雅艾尔:那么说雌性蜥蜴是在克隆自己。Don:Thats right. And if that werent enough, the female lizards take turns role-playing. They perform a mating ritual in which one lizard acts like the male, and the second lizard acts like the female. The ritual causes the lizard acting as the female to ovulate and lay her eggs. Then, a few weeks later, the two lizards switch roles and repeat this process so that the second female will be able to ovulate and lay her eggs.唐:说得对。如果那样还不够的话,雌性蜥蜴会轮流进行角色扮演。她们进行一个交配仪式,其中一个扮演雄性,另一个扮演雌性。这种仪式会引起扮演雌性角色的蜥蜴排卵并产卵。然后过几个星期,两只蜥蜴再交换角色,重复这种交配仪式,这样另一只雌蜥蜴就可以排卵,产卵了。Yael:That is strange.雅艾尔:太奇怪了。Don:And it raises a lot of interesting questions. For example, its not clear how well an all-female species can evolve and adapt to environmental changes. A species survival depends in part on variation among its members. If all the members of a species are identical, chances are greater that something like a change in the climate or a disease will wipe them all out.唐:这也引发了许多有趣的问题。例如,对于这种全雌物种如何更好地进化以适应环境变化目前还不清楚。一个物种的生存要部分依靠成员的变异。如果所有的成员基因都一模一样,那么一遇到气候变化或者灾害,她们全军覆没的机会就很大。Yael:So it might be a little early to do away with males.雅艾尔:所以排除雄性还为之过早。Don:Well, you know what they say. You cant live with them.唐:嗯,你知道她们是怎么说的。你没办法和他们一起生活。Yael:You cant live without them.雅艾尔:但你的生活不能没有他们。原文译文属!201207/189587

  Science Hero: Jules Verne科学英雄:儒勒#8226;凡尔纳儒勒#8226;凡尔纳(Jules Verne,1828年2月8日-1905年3月24日),法国小说家、物学家,现代科幻小说的重要开创者之一。他一生写了六十多部大大小小的科幻小说,总题为《在已知和未知的世界漫游》。他以其大量著作和突出贡献,被誉为“科幻小说之父”。由于凡尔纳知识非常丰富,他小说作品的著述、描写多有科学根据,所以当时他小说的幻想,如今成为了有趣的预言。Thats right the time for the Science Hero Award, where we honor a particular man or woman from history who made a contribution to science. Todays Science Hero, though, wasnt a scientist at all, but a science fiction writer. In fact,he was one of the pioneers of the genre of science fiction.那正好是颁科学英雄奖的时间,我们以此纪念那些历史上为科学做出贡献的个人。然而今天的科学英雄根本不是科学家,而是一位科幻小说作者。事实上,他是该体裁的先驱之一。Jules Verne is our hero. Jules Verne was born in France in 1828 and originally studied to be a lawyer. But he was fascinated with the exploration of nature and the world. Also, he loved writing. In his writing he was able to bring scientific ideas to a general audience. If he were alive today hed probably be writing for us.儒勒#8226;凡尔纳是我们的英雄。他于1828年出生在法国,起初他是学习法律的。但他对探索自然和世界十分着迷,而且他喜欢写作。在他的作品中,他能将科学概念带给读者。如果他还活着,他很可能还在为我们创作。Jules Verne also wanted to challenge people to think about new things that science could bring them. His stories were full of fantastic machines, but they were always things that could in principle be constructed. Because of this combination of knowledge and imagination, he was able to anticipate many things that now actually exist.儒勒#8226;凡尔纳也想挑战人们去思考科学可能带给他们的新事物。他的故事中满是奇妙的机器,但都总是理论上可以创造出来的东西。由于知识和想象力的结合,他能预见很多现在确实存在的事物。For example, you may know that in his novel ;Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea,; Verne imagined an enclosed boat that could travel underwater—what we now call a submarine. But did you know that on board his submarine he put another imaginary device, the electric stove? Or that he was one of the first to suggest putting people inside a giant bullet and firing it at the moon? That’s not quite how we got there, but the principle is much the same.比如,在他的《海底两万里》中,你可能知道凡尔纳设想了一艘可以在海底穿梭的船——我们现在称之为潜水艇。但你知道在其潜水艇上,他放置了另一件想象的工具——电炉吗?或者说他是第一个建议把人放在巨型炮弹里,瞄准月球发射的人之一吗?我们并不是那样登上月球的,但理论上大致相同。Good science fiction is both fun to , and can lead to real science. Way to go, Jules!好的科幻小说既有趣,又能引导我们了解真科学。做得好,凡尔纳! /201208/194183DOES raising taxes on those who are doing well economically stifle growth and slow down the recovery? That depends on how rich people behave when their taxes rise. Do they work less when they are allowed to keep a smaller chunk of their income? Do they move their money offshore? Do they take a larger share of their earnings in forms that are more lightly taxed? Economists have looked at the effects of many past changes in tax rates to try to answer such questions.对富人增税是否会抑制经济增长,延缓复苏?这取决于富人在增税后的行为态度。若税后收入缩水,他们是否会因此减少工作量?将家产移至海外?抑或更多地通过赋税较低的形式获取收入?为了解答上述问题,经济学家对过去诸多税率政策变化的收效作出研究。Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, found that the taxable income of the rich adjusted dollar-for-dollar with tax rates when America cut its highest tax rate from 50% to 28% in 1986, so that tax revenues stayed the same. This would suggest that raising top tax rates is likely to produce little extra revenue, while distorting economic behaviour further. But others have found that this adjustment in taxable income is driven largely by people altering when and how they take their income in order to minimise their tax burden. For instance, there was a big fall in taxable income after tax rates rose in 1993; but most of this seems to have come from a few rich people hurrying to cash in their stock options before taxes rose.哈佛经济学家马丁;费尔德斯坦指出,1986年美国将税率上限由50%下调至28%,与之相应的富人应税收入也作出等额调整,总税收与往年持平。这就意味着提高税率上限可能不会带来多少额外收益,反倒进一步扭曲经济行为。但是,还有一些经济学家认为,对应税收入的调整主要是应富人的需求--他们通过调整获取收入的时间与方式,使赋税达到最低。举例来说,1993年税率上升后,应税收入大幅下降;这很大程度上是因为一些富人此前赶着在税率调高前兑现股票期权。Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics, Emmanuel Saez of the University of California, Berkeley, and Stefanie Stantcheva of MIT argue in a new paper that this is why few studies have been able to show any significant long-term effect from raising top tax rates. But such avoidance, they say, is merely a symptom of a poorly designed tax system. It is silly to have a high tax rate while simultaneously giving people many ways to avoid paying it. So the first task of tax reformers must be to minimise such opportunities by having a broader tax base, better enforcement and similar tax rates for different kinds of income.巴黎经济学院的托马斯;皮凯迪,加州大学伯克利分校的伊曼纽尔;赛斯和麻省理工的斯蒂芬妮;斯坦特切娃在最新发表的论文中谈到,正是由于富人对税后利益最大化的需求导致对应税收入的调整,使得至今鲜有研究表明提高税率上限会造成任何深远影响。但他们也认为,富人的避税行径不过是税制系统设计糟糕的表现。设置高税率的同时提供诸多避开它的方法,不可谓不愚蠢。因此,税制改革者的首要任务务必是使避税之人毫无可乘之机。手段包括:扩大税基,加强管制,对不同形式的收入设置相当的税率。That is relatively uncontroversial. But their other finding is likely to raise a few eyebrows. They reckon that if the tax system were reformed to make evasion impossible, the top tax rate might be able to rise to as much as 83%;that is, to levels last seen in the 1960s;without hurting the economy. This is because people do not seem greatly to adjust how much they work when tax rates change. Higher top rates may also discourage big earners from spending too much of their time trying to bargain for a larger share of the overall pie.前述相对来说争议不大。但他们的另一个研究结果可能会让人狐疑好一阵子。据这些专家估计,若改革后的税制要完全杜绝避税,税率上限可以调高至83%(上一次出现如此高的税率还在20世纪60年代)都不会阻碍经济发展,因为人们不大可能在税率变化后调整工作量。面对更高的税率,富人也不会再花大力气分一杯更大的羹。Now all that remains is to remove the loopholes. On past experience, Americarsquo;s rich need not lose sleep over that.现在剩下要做的是堵住法律漏洞。从以往的 经验看,富人们无须失眠。201202/169863

  Surprise at Stonehenge神奇的巨石阵Wizards and aliens aside, actual scientists don’t have much to say about Stonehenge. That is, until now. Just recently, a four-thousand-year old gravesite was found within three miles of Stonehenge. The tomb contained what some archaeologists think may be one of the original craftsmen. Even better than that, he isn’t British.除了巫师和外星人外,真正的科学家对于巨石阵并没有说明太多。到目前为止。就在最近,离巨石阵三公里以内的地方发现了一个有四千年历史的墓地。该墓可能是一些考古学家认为的最早的技工之一。甚至情况比那还要好,他不是英国人。The ancient bones are referred to as “the archer,” because, whoever he was, he was buried with several arrows. The fact that the grave is so close to the stones suggests that the archer was somehow connected to Stonehenge, as does the fact that he lived in 2300 , the same time when the monoliths were erected. Was he its founder, a designer, a priest? It isn’t clear. But the archer was an important person. Along with the arrows, he has copper knives, ornaments, and pottery. Several of these have been identified as coming from what archaeologists call “the Beaker Culture.”古老的骨骼暗示其为一名弓箭手,因为,不管他是谁,他的陪葬物品中有几箭。实际上,因为墓地离巨石阵很近,所以这位弓箭手与巨石阵有一定关系,又因为他生活在公元前2300年,也就是那时这些巨石被竖立起来的。他是巨石阵的建造者,设计者或神父吗?目前尚无定论。但是这位弓箭手无疑是一位非常重要的人。除了箭,他还有铜质小刀,装饰物和陶器。其中几件物品已经被确认为是考古学家称作的“烧杯文化”。There’s one of the surprises. The Beaker Culture had its Bronze-age heyday in the Alps, not in England. Researchers did chemical analysis of the remains and found that the archer most likely came from what is now Switzerland.有一个惊奇的发现。烧杯文化在青铜时代达鼎盛时期于阿尔卑斯山一带,而不是在英格兰。研究人员对这些遗留下来的物品做了化学和分析,发现弓箭手很有可能来自于现在的瑞士。Next surprise? Another grave was found nearby, this containing a younger man. This fellow grew up in England, but an unusual foot bone shows he’s related to the archer–the archer, it seems, came to England and raised a family.另一个惊喜呢?在附近发现了另外一个墓,是一位比较年轻的人的墓。他生活在英格兰,但他独特的足骨表明他与弓箭手有关系。这位弓箭手好像是来自英格兰的,并且是他养家糊口的。Who was this foreigner who was treated with such reverence? We won’t ever know for sure. His fame has disappeared into history. But the stone circle he may have built has never been forgotten, even four thousand years later.这位如此受尊敬的外国人是谁呢?我们永远都不能确定。他的名声也已经随历史消失。但是这些可能由他建造的巨石阵却永远不会被遗忘,即使是四千年以后。 /201301/222086

  

  

  Business.商业。Microsoft and privacy.微软与隐私政策。Change of track.信息追踪环境的变化。Data on peoples online behaviour are worth both paying for and arguing over.记录用户在线行为的数据不仅引来买家,也带来争议。AN OLD saw has it that half of all advertising budgets are wasted-the trouble is, no one knows which half. In the internet age, at least in theory, this fraction can be much reduced. By watching what people search for, click on and say online, companies can aim ;behavioural; ads at those most likely to buy.老话说得好,砸向广告的投资中,一半都打了水漂——问题是,无人知晓打水漂的到底是哪一半。在互联网时代,这一比例理论上可被大幅压缩。通过观察用户在线的搜索、点击和行为,公司能够向那些最可能买账的用户投放;关于行为的;广告。In the past couple of weeks three deals and a quarrel have illustrated the value to advertisers (and their suppliers of software) of such fine-grained information. The first deal came on May 23rd, when Oracle said it was buying Vitrue, which helps firms run their marketing on social media, for a reported 0m. On June 5th it added Collective Intellect, which analyses what people say about companies on Facebook, Twitter and so forth, for an undisclosed sum. A day earlier Salesforce.com, a cloud-computing company mustard-keen on social media, had said it would pay 9m for Buddy Media, a competitor of Vitrues. Buddy should fit in with Radian 6, which, like Collective Intellect, monitors social media—and for which Salesforce paid 6m last year.在过去的几周,三笔生意和一席争吵共同道出了这些精确的信息对于广告商的价值(还有他们的软件供应商)。第一笔生意来自5月23号。当时甲骨文公司宣布正在收购帮助企业在社交媒体上做营销的公司Virtue,媒体公布的报价为3亿美元。在6月5日,它又将用于分析用户在Facebook, Twitter等社媒上用户对公司发表的的Collective Intellect软件纳入收购计划,收购金额没有公布。日前,对社交媒体极其感兴趣的云计算公司Salesforce.com公布将以6.89亿美元的价格收购Vitrue的竞争者Buddy Media。Buddy 可以使用Radian 6软件,后者像Collective Intellect一样可以对社媒进行监控,Salesforce去年为这款软件出价3.26亿美元。The quarrel is the latest round in a long-running argument. Should advertisers assume that people are happy to be tracked and sent behavioural ads? Or should they have explicit permission? Many people give scarcely a thought to being electronically snooped on as they browse, but some object furiously.在长期的争辩中,最后的一个环节便是争吵。广告商可以认为用户乐于被跟踪并被发送广告吗?或者他们需要显式的授权?很多人浏览时根本不介意被电子跟踪,但也有人言辞激烈的提出了反对。In December 2010 Americas Federal Trade Commission proposed adding a ;do not track; (DNT) option to internet browsers, so that users could tell advertisers that they did not want to be followed. Mozillas Firefox, Microsofts Internet Explorer and Apples Safari all offer DNT; Googles Chrome is due to do so this year. In February the FTC and the Digital Advertising Alliance (DAA), a consortium of trade bodies, agreed that the industry would get cracking on responding to DNT requests. In the European Union a new rule requires websites to ask before using ;cookies; to gather data about users behaviour.在2010年12月,美国联邦贸易委员会建议将;禁止跟踪;(DNT)选项加入到互联网浏览器中,从而用户能够通知广告商他们不想被跟踪。Mozilla的火狐浏览器,微软的IE浏览器以及苹果的游猎(Safari)浏览器都提供了DNT选项;谷歌的铬黄(Chrome)浏览器在今年也将提供同样的功能。二月份,联邦贸易委员会与行业协会数字广告联盟(DAA)达成共识:该行业将尽快对DNT请求做出回应。在欧盟,一项新规定也要求网站用;cookies;收集用户行为数据前发出请求。On May 31st Microsoft set off the row. It said that Internet Explorer 10, the version due to appear with Windows 8, a new incarnation of the software firms operating system, would have DNT as a default.5月31日,微软率先做出了行动。据称将随该公司最新操作系统Windows 8一起面世的Internet Explorer 10浏览器将把DNT作为默认选项。Advertisers are horrified. Human nature being what it is, most people stick with default settings. Few switch DNT on now, but if tracking is off it will stay off. Bob Liodice, the chief executive of the Association of National Advertisers, one of the groups in the DAA, says consumers will be worse off if the industry cannot collect information about their preferences. People will not get fewer ads, he says. ;Theyll get less meaningful, less targeted ads.;广告主一阵恐慌。;保持原样;是人类本能,很多用户都坚持使用默认选项。没有几人会将DNT选项打开,但跟踪一旦被关闭它就将保持关闭状态。DAA内的组织,国家广告联盟(Association of National Advertisers)主席Bob Liodice说:如果广告行业不能收集消费者的偏好信息,他们的情况将更糟。他说用户看到的广告数量不会减少,但是;他们收到的广告将更没有意义,更缺少针对性。;It is not yet clear how advertisers will respond. Getting a DNT signal does not oblige anyone to stop tracking, although some companies (including Twitter) have promised to do so. Unable to tell whether someone really objects to behavioural ads or whether they are sticking with Microsofts default, some may ignore a DNT signal and press on anyway.现在还不清楚广告商将作何反应。收到DNT选项的企业并没有义务停止跟踪,不过包括Twitter在内的一些企业已经承诺会在收到该选项后停止追踪。由于不能区别用户是真的反对关于行为的广告还是没有更改微软提供的默认选项,有些广告商会忽略DNT信号,不管不顾地追踪信息。Also unclear is why Microsoft has gone it alone. After all, it has an ad business too, which it says will comply with DNT requests, though it is still working out how. If it is trying to rile Google, which relies almost wholly on advertising, it has chosen an indirect method: there is no guarantee that DNT by default will become the norm. DNT does not seem an obviously huge selling point for Windows 8-though the firm has compared some of its other products favourably with Googles on that count before. Brendon Lynch, Microsofts chief privacy officer, blogged: ;We believe consumers should have more control.; Could it really be that simple?同样不清晰的是,为何微软一枝独秀地采取了行动。毕竟它也有广告业务,据称这些业务也将响应DNT请求,尽管该公司正在研究如何做到这一点。如果它想激怒几乎全靠广告业务运营的谷歌公司的话,那么它选择的方法可不太直接:没人保DNT将成为规范。而且DNT看起来也不会成为Windows 8的巨大卖点——尽管微软为了自家利益,以此为标准将旗下的其他产品与谷歌做了比较。微软的首席隐私官Brendon Lynch在客中写到:;我们坚信消费者应该有更多的控制权;。事情能这么简单吗? /201209/202058

  

  Science and Technology,Eradicating polio,Late? Or never?科技,根除脊髓灰质炎,为时已晚?或絕無可能?A plan to wipe out polio by the end of next year is in trouble明年底消灭脊髓灰质炎的计划倍受挑战HUBRIS is always dangerous. In 1977 smallpox was eradicated and—an accidental infection in a British laboratory a year later aside—that claim has stood the test of time.骄傲自满通常是危险的行为。1977年,人类宣称消灭了天花(若将一年后英国实验室发生的一次偶然天花感染排除在外的话),这份声明经历了时间的考验。Having eliminated one viral disease, the authorities decided they ought to be able to get rid of another: polio.在消灭了一种病毒疾病后,权威专家们认为他们有能力再消灭另一种病毒:脊髓灰质炎病毒。That, though, proved a tougher opponent.但实践明,脊髓灰质炎是个难以应付的对手。The World Health Organisations original target, set in 1988—a polio-free world by 2000—proved illusory.世界卫生组织于1988年定下的原始目标——到2000年实现全世界无脊髓灰质炎——被明是天方夜谭。The latest deadline set by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), the multinational body charged with dealing with the disease, is next year.全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动小组(GPEI)是负责消灭该疾病的跨国机构,它将消灭脊髓灰质炎的最后期限定为明年。On July 20th, though, Sir Liam Donaldson, once Englands chief medical officer and now the chairman of an independent watchdog committee that scrutinises the GPEIs activities, published a report which says this deadline, too, is at risk.但7月20日,利亚姆·唐纳森发布的一份报告指出这个最后期限也正面临风险。利亚姆·唐纳森是英国前首席医疗官,现任负责审查;全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动;活动的独立监督委员会主席。In truth, the GPEI has not done badly.事实上,全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动一直成绩卓著。The number of cases of polio is a mere 1% of what it was in 1988.目前,脊髓灰质炎的病例数量仅为1988年的1%。But that number has hardly budged for several years.而且在数年间,该数字几乎都未发生变化。Squeezing the last few cases out of existence has proved far harder than expected.要想根除最后的少量残存病例明比预期更难。Polio poses a particular challenge to countries with unstable politics and weak health systems.在政治动荡和卫生系统薄弱的国家,消除脊髓灰质炎将面临很严峻的挑战。To contain outbreaks, surveillance must be vigilant: the virus usually lurks silently, paralysing just one carrier in 200.为控制疾病爆发,必须在疫情监测上提高警惕:此种病毒通常悄无声息地潜伏于人体内,每200名病毒携带者中仅有1名会遭受此病毒侵袭。Moreover, the vaccine is delicate and must be kept cool.此外,由于病毒疫苗的敏感特性使其必须在低温下保存。And immunisation requires repeated vaccinations.并且要想实现免疫还需要反复接种。Today polio is endemic in only four countries: Afghanistan, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. It has, however, re-emerged in several others (see chart).目前脊髓灰质炎仅在四个国家流行:阿富汗、印度、尼日利亚和巴基斯坦。但此病在其它几个国家也曾死灰复燃(见图表)。Each endemic country has its own particular problems.每个疾病流行的国家都有自己特殊的问题。In Afghanistan the GPEI has failed to stop transmission in 13 war-ridden southern districts.在战火纷飞的13个阿富汗南部地区,全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动没能够阻止疫情的传播。Most of India is free of the disease, but the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to struggle.印度大部分地区都未出现该病疫情,但北方邦州和比哈尔邦州仍在与该疾病抗争。In 2003 and 2004 Nigeria was gripped by rumours that polio vaccine would sterilise children and infect them with HIV.2003年和2004年,尼日利亚坊间盛传脊髓灰质炎疫苗会使儿童绝育并让他们感染艾滋病毒。And although in Pakistan the incidence of polio dropped tenfold between 1995 and 2000, conflict, poor sanitation and a mobile population helped the number of cases jump by 62% last year.尽管巴基斯坦的脊髓灰质炎发病率在1995年到2000年间降低了10倍,但战争冲突、恶劣的卫生条件和人口的流动使病例数量在去年激增了62% 。In 2010 the GPEI adopted a new strategy, with the goal of stopping transmission by the end of 2012.2010年,全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动通过了一项新策略,其目标是到2012年底阻止脊髓灰质炎的传播。If no cases are seen for three years after that, the disease will be certified as eradicated.如果接下来的三年内无病例发生,那就明该疾病被彻底根除了。One priority of this new strategy is to work carefully with local leaders, to win support for immunisation.这项新策略的首要任务是寻求与疫情当地领导人的紧密合作,赢得他们对免疫行动的持。In Asia, where polio cases are concentrated in just a few places, the GPEI has tailored plans for each of them.在亚洲,脊髓灰质炎仅集中在少数几个地区,全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动已经为它们量身定制了几套方案。For example, better co-ordination between Afghanistan and Pakistan would help manage cross-border transmission.例如,阿富汗与巴基斯坦的通力合作有助于控制疫情的跨境传播。In Africa, where the virus now roams across a broad swathe of countries, the GPEI would scale up activity in places such as Angola, Chad, Guinea and Mali where polio has reappeared in recent years.在非洲,病毒目前在众多国家肆虐。近年来,脊髓灰质炎在安哥拉、乍得、几内亚与马里等国家死灰复燃,全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动将扩大对它们的救治规模。The response to new outbreaks would be swifter and stronger; the administration of vaccines, broader. A new, more effective oral vaccine will help.对新疫情爆发的反应将更加快速而有效,并且疫苗的投放范围将更为广泛。一种新型更为有效的口疫苗也将对疫情防治有所帮助。One final push最后一搏Sir Liams committee was itself a product of this new strategy, and now it is fulfilling its remit by pointing out where other components are going wrong.利亚姆负责的委员会本身就是这项新策略的产物,他们要履行的职责是指出根除脊髓灰质炎行动计划中的错漏之处。Though India has made gains, elections interrupted progress in Nigeria.尽管印度在脊髓灰质炎防治方面取得成效,但尼日利亚的大选阻断了该病所取得的进展。Pakistans emergency action plan seems to have had little effect—the country has recorded 54 cases this year, double the number in the first half of 2010.巴基斯坦的紧急行动计划似乎也成效甚微——该国今年已经发生了54宗病例,比2010年上半年增加一倍。Countries with resurgent polio are struggling as well.脊髓灰质炎复发的国家也面临同样的困境。Chad, for example, has been slow to implement a strong plan of action.例如乍得迟迟未付诸实施强有力的行动计划。The original strategy for the Democratic Republic of the Congo was to concentrate vaccination in three provinces.刚果民主共和国原先的策略是将免疫计划集中在三个省。However, transmission is now more widesp, so a broader campaign might prove necessary.然而现在疾病传播反而更加广泛了,因此可能需要在更大范围内与该疾病抗争。More than billion has been spent to date, with more than billion of that coming from the Bill amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.迄今为止,各国已经投入了80多亿美元对抗脊髓灰质炎,其中有十几亿美元资金来自于比尔·盖茨和梅林达·盖茨基金会。Mr and Mrs Gates hope their investment will pay a big dividend.盖茨夫妇希望他们的投资会带来很大成效。A recent paper estimated that eliminating polio would bring a net benefit of between billion and billion over the period from 1988 to 2035.一份最近的报告估计从1988年到2035年间消除脊髓灰质炎将带来400亿到500亿美元的净收益。But that assumed eradication by 2012.但其前提是到2012年要将脊髓灰质炎彻底根除。Donald Henderson, the doctor who led the campaign to rid the world of smallpox, predicts that even if polio is deemed eradicated, vaccination will have to continue, just in case.唐纳德·亨德森医生曾领导消灭全世界天花的斗争,他预测即使有天脊髓灰质炎被消灭了,免疫工作仍要继续以确保万无一失。That will drive up costs.但这将推高行动计划的成本。For now the GPEI is resolute. But the eradication campaign cannot last for ever.目前全球根除脊髓灰质炎的行动是坚决的,但病毒消灭战役不可能永无休止地进行下去。 /201211/210443

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