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2020年01月22日 16:14:41来源:快乐信息

The northern Chinese city that has pinned its hopes on the solar power industry tops China’s “most-polluted” list.对太阳能发电产业寄予厚望的华北城市,在中国“污染最严重城市”榜单上位居首位。Baoding, home to Yingli Solar, the world’s second-largest solar panel maker, was the most polluted among the 74 cities on an environment ministry list published on Monday.全球第二大太阳能电池板制造商英利集团(Yingli Solar)总部所在的保定,在中国环保部周一发表的74个城市空气质量状况报告中,被列为空气污染最严重的城市。Six others in the top 10 are in Hebei, the industrialised province that rings Beijing, where the government is struggling to cut the smog that envelops the capital routinely.除保定外,空气污染最严重的前10位城市中,还有6个来自于环绕北京的河北省。北京市政府正竭力驱散经常笼罩中国首都的雾霾。In 2010, Baoding, 150km southwest of Beijing, was designated a low-carbon pilot, targeting urban growth without reliance on coal-fuelled heavy industry. Its roads are lined with solar-powered street lights, reflecting the importance to the local economy of the panel manufacturing industry.2010年,地处北京西南方向150公里外的保定,被指定开展低碳试点项目,力求做到在不依赖需要燃煤的重工业的情况下推进城市发展。该市的路灯是太阳能供电的,反映出太阳能电池板制造业对当地经济的重要性。Overall, 90 per cent of the cities surveyed fell short of pollution targets, the ministry said. Eight managed to do so, an improvement on last year, when three hit the targets.中国环保部表示,总体而言,被调查的城市有90%空气质量不达标。8个城市达标,比上一年度只有3个城市达标的“成绩”好一些。The smog that blankets Chinese cities is becoming a source of public discontent, and the government has announced a series of targets and policies to reduce industrial and vehicle pollution in the most populous and prosperous centres. But orders to curb heavy industry are countered by strong government support for companies that are often the biggest local taxpayers and employers.覆盖中国城市的雾霾正成为公众不满情绪的源头之一,政府已宣布了一系列目标和政策,力求在最繁荣、人口最多的中心城市减少工业和机动车污染。但是,遏制重工业的指令,在一定程度上被政府对此类企业(它们往往是当地最大的纳税人和雇主)的大力扶持所抵消。Average levels of PM2.5, or fine particulate matter, stood at 93 micrograms per cubic metre last year in the region covering Hebei and Beijing, the ministry said. That level is “good” in the Chinese air quality grading system, although it is well above the national target of 35 micrograms. The US Environmental Protection Agency target is an annual average of 15 micrograms, with the level in any 24 hours averaging no more than 35 micrograms.中国环保部称,京津冀区域去年PM2.5(即细颗粒物)年均浓度为每立方米93微克。按照中国的空气质量分级制度,这一水平属于“良好”,尽管它远高于35微克的国家指标。美国环保局(EPA)的指标是年均15微克,而且在任一24小时期间的平均浓度均不超过35微克。Spurred by the US embassy’s decision to tweet the ings of an air quality monitor on its roof, China now publishes data for most of its largest cities but is sensitive about poor results.在美国驻华大使馆决定通过Twitter发布其楼顶上的空气质量监测器读数的推动下,中国目前发布多数大城市的空气质量数据,但对于糟糕的结果比较敏感。The developers of a popular smartphone app that compares ings from the US embassy with government data were ordered to stop including the embassy figures in the lead-up to November’s Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation meeting. They have not been allowed to resume the comparison.在去年11月北京举行亚太经合组织(APEC)会议前夕,一个比较美国大使馆读数与中国官方数据的热门智能手机应用的开发商,被勒令停止囊括美国大使馆的读数。他们至今没有获准恢复上述比较。Ironically, US embassy ings were often lower than the city’s official ings during the Apec meeting.讽刺的是,在APEC会议期间,美国大使馆的读数常常低于北京市的官方数据。Baoding’s new status is bad news for the think-tanks and secondary government institutions the central government plans to relocate there to reduce congestion and pollution in Beijing.保定的新地位对中国中央政府计划迁至该市的智库和二级政府机构来说是个坏消息。该计划的目的是减轻北京的交通拥堵和污染。 /201502/358208。

  • The recent drop in crude prices won’t kill off the US shale oil industry. It’ll just make it more efficient.最近的石油价格下跌不会将美国页岩油行业置于死地,而只会让它变得更有效率。Profit margins and break-even points are relative not only to the price of oil, but also to the cost of doing business. As oil prices drop, producers will undoubtedly renegotiate their ludicrously expensive oil service contracts, slash wages for their workforce and cut perks to bring their costs in line with the depressed price for crude. The demand for oil remains strong, which should provide an adequate floor for producers in the long run, but only after they get their finances in order.利润率和盈亏平衡点不仅仅和油价有关,还取决于经营成本。随着油价下跌,生产企业必将重新商讨那些贵得离谱的油田务合同,降低员工工资并削减津贴,以便让成本和下跌的油价保持一致。对石油的需求依然旺盛,这将为石油开采企业提供足够的长期撑,但后者必须首先理顺自身的财务状况。How oil prices ever reached 0 a barrel still remains a mystery to many who have followed the industry for years. But the 40% drop in oil prices over the past six months has been shocking for oil bears and bulls alike. Why on earth did it fall so hard, so fast? There is plenty of speculation, ranging from the Saudi’s wish to “crush” the U.S. shale industry, to the U.S. colluding with the Saudi’s to flood the market in order to bankrupt an aggressive Russia and an obstinate Iran.对许多长年跟踪石油行业的人来说,油价如何攀升到每桶100美元仍然是个谜。而过去六个月中油价下跌了40%,同样让看涨和看跌的人都感到惊讶。石油价格究竟为什么会跌得如此之猛?如此之快?人们有各种各样的猜测,从沙特想“摧毁”美国的页岩油行业,到美国和沙特联手制造供给泛滥,目的是让咄咄逼人的俄罗斯和顽固不化的伊朗陷入破产境地,不一而足。Conspiracy theories aside, the fact is oil prices have dropped and they may stay “low” for a while. This has analysts, journalists, and pundits running around claiming that it’s the end of the world.让我们先把阴谋论放在一边,实际情况是油价已经下跌,而且可能在一段时间内保持在“较低”水平。这种局面让分析师、记者和人士四处宣称世界末日到了。It is understandable that people are nervous. After all, the oil industry is a major producer of jobs and wealth for the U.S. It contributes around .2 trillion to U.S. GDP and supports over 9.3 million permanent jobs, according to a study from The Perryman Group. Not all that money and jobs come directly from the shale oil industry or even the energy industry as a whole but instead derive from the multiplier effect the industry has on local economies. Given this, it’s clear why any drop in the oil price, let alone a 40% drop, is cause for concern.人们的紧张可以理解。毕竟,石油行业是美国就业机会和财富的主要来源。经济分析机构The Perryman Group的研究显示,石油行业为美国贡献了1.2万亿美元GDP和930多万个长期就业机会。这些GDP和就业机会并非直接由页岩油行业创造,甚至不是整个能源行业,而是该行业给地方经济带来的乘数效应所产生的。想到这一点,就明白为什么油价的每次下跌都会造成紧张空气了,更别说跌幅达到了40%。Nowhere in the U.S. is that concern felt more acutely than in Houston, Texas, the nation’s oil capital. The falling price of crude hasn’t had a major impact on the city’s economy, at least not yet. But people, especially the under-40 crowd—the Shale Boomers, as I call them—are starting to grow very worried. At bars and restaurants in Houston’s newly gentrified East End and Midtown districts, you often hear the young bucks (and does) comparing notes on their company’s break-even points with respect to oil prices. Those who work for producers with large acreage in the Bakken shale in North Dakota are saying West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude needs to stay above a barrel for their companies to stay in the black. Those who work for producers with large acreage in the Eagleford shale play in south Texas say their companies can stay above water with oil as low as to a barrel.德克萨斯州休斯敦市是美国的石油之都,在这里最能感受到这种紧张气氛。油价持续下滑尚未对这座城市的经济产生重大影响,至少目前还没有。但这里的人们已经变得非常焦虑,特别是那些40岁以下的人,我把这个群体称为“页岩油婴儿潮一代”。在休斯敦新兴的中产阶层社区East End和Midtown的酒吧和餐馆里,经常能听到小伙子(和姑娘)们探讨自己所在公司的盈亏平衡点和油价的关联。在北达科他州巴肯拥有大片页岩油田的采油公司的员工们认为,西德州轻质低硫原油(WTI)价格需保持在每桶60美元以上,他们的公司才能继续盈利。而那些在南德州Eagleford拥有大量页岩油业务的石油公司的员工们则表示,油价下跌到不低于45-50美元时,他们的公司能安然无恙。Both groups say that they have heard their companies are starting to walk away from some of the more “speculative” parts of their fields, which translates to a decrease in production, the first such decrease in years. This was confirmed Wednesday when the Fed’s Beige Book noted that oil and gas activity in North Dakota decreased in early November due to the rapid fall in oil prices. Nevertheless, the Fed added the outlook from “officials” in North Dakota “remained optimistic,” and that they expect oil production to continue to increase over the next two years.这两个群体都表示,他们已经听说自己的公司开始撤出油田中“投机性”较高的区域,也就是说这些公司的石油产量出现了多年来的首次下降。美联储(Fed)周三公布的褐皮书印了这一点。该报告指出,由于油价迅速下跌,11月初石油和天然气公司在北达科他州的经营活动减少。不过,美联储补充道,该地区“高层”对前景“保持乐观”,他们预计今后两年石油产量将继续上升。What are these “officials,” thinking? Don’t they worry about the break-even price of oil? Sure they do, but unlike the Shale Boomers, they also probably remember drilling for oil when it traded in the single digits, which really wasn’t that long ago. For these seasoned oil men, crude at a barrel still looks mighty appealing.这些“高层”在想什么?难道他们不担心盈亏平衡价格吗?当然担心,但和“页岩油婴儿潮一代”不同的是,他们可能还记得油价处于个位数时开采石油的情形,而这其实并不是那么久远。对这些经验丰富的石油人来说,每桶60美元的油价仍有极大的吸引力。Doug Sheridan, the founder of EnergyPoint Research, which conducts satisfaction surveys, ratings, and reports for the energy industry, recalls when he had lunch with an oil executive of a major energy giant 10 years ago who confided in him that his firm was worried that oil prices had risen too high, too fast. “He was concerned that the high prices would attract negative attention from the press and Congress,” Sheridan told Fortune. “The funny thing was, oil prices were only around a barrel.”从事能源行业满意度调查,评级和分析的EnergyPoint Research公司的创始人道格o谢里丹回忆说,10年前他曾和一家能源巨头的石油业务主管共进午餐,后者向他透露,他们公司担心油价涨得太高太快。谢里丹告诉《财富》(Fortune)杂志:“他害怕高油价会引起媒体和国会的关注,从而产生不利影响。可笑的是,那时候油价只有33美元左右。”The shale boom has perpetuated the notion that drilling for oil, especially in shale formations, is somehow super complicated and expensive. It really isn’t. Fracking a well involves just shooting a bunch of water and chemicals down a hole at high pressure—not exactly rocket science. The drilling technique has been around since the 1940s, and the energy industry has gotten very good at doing it over the decades. Recent advances in technology, such as horizontal drilling, have made fracking wells even easier and more efficient.页岩油的蓬勃发展让人们认定石油开采,特别是页岩油的开采特别复杂和昂贵。但实际情况真的不是这样。石油水力压裂技术只不过是以高压向油井注入水和化学物质,这其实算不上尖端技术。20世纪40年代以来,钻井技术就一直如此,几十年来能源行业已经非常善于进行这样的工作。水平钻井等最近出现的技术进步则让压裂变得更简单、更有效率。But even though drilling for oil has become easier and more efficient, production costs have gone through the roof. Why? There are a few reasons for this, but the main one is the high price of oil. When oil service firms like Halliburton and Schlumberger negotiate contracts with producers, they usually take the oil price into consideration. The higher the oil price, the higher the cost for their services. This, combined with the boom in cheap credit over the last few years, has increased demand for everything related to the oil service sector—from men to material to housing. In what other industry do you know where someone without a college degree can start out making six figures for doing manual labor? You can in the oil and gas sectors, especially in places like Western North Dakota. There, McDonald’s employees make an hour and rent for a modest place can top ,000 a month.不过,尽管石油开采变得更简单而且效率更高,生产成本却扶摇直上。为什么呢?有几个原因,但主要原因是高油价。哈里伯顿公司(Halliburton)和斯伦贝谢公司(Schlumberger)等油田务商和石油开采企业商洽合同时,它们通常都会考虑油价。油价越高,它们的务费用就越高。再加上过去几年低利贷款的激增,使得与油田务行业有关的需求全面增长,从人员到物资,再到住房,无不如此。试问没有大学文凭的人在哪个行业能靠体力劳动从一开始就挣到六位数呢?在石油天然气行业就可以,特别是在北达科他州西部。在那里,麦当劳员工每小时挣20美元,而普通住宅的月租金会超过2000美元。But as the oil price drops, so will costs, bringing the “break-even” price down with it. Seasoned oil men know how to get this done—it involves a little Texas theater, which is sort of like bargaining at a Turkish bazaar. The producers will first clutch their hearts and tell their suppliers that they simply cannot afford to drill any more given the sharp slump in oil prices. Their suppliers will offer a slight discount on their services but the producer will say he’s “walking away.” This is where we are in the negotiating cycle.不过,随着油价下跌,成本也会下降,“盈亏平衡”价格也会随之降低。经验丰富的石油从业者知道怎样做到这一点——他们需要演点儿戏,这有点像在土耳其市场讨价还价。首先,石油公司要捂着自己的胸口告诉务供应商,由于油价暴跌,它们再也无力承担钻井费用。务供应商就会给它们很小的折扣,但石油公司会拒绝。这就是我们讨价还价的惯式。After letting the oil service firms sweat a bit (traditionally around two to four months), a producer will give their former suppliers a call, saying they are “thinking” of getting back in the game. Desperate for work, the suppliers will now be willing to renegotiate a whole new agreement based on a lower oil price. The aim of the new contract is to give producers close to the same margin they had when prices were much higher. Profits are restored and everyone is happy.让油田务供应商急出点儿汗以后(通常要两到四个月),石油公司就会和前者取得联系,称自己正在“考虑”回到谈判中。此时,迫切希望开展业务的务供应商就会愿意基于更低的油价重新洽谈一份全新的协议。这份新合同的目的是让石油公司的利润率接近之前油价高得多的时候。这样,利润就可以恢复到以往水平,而且皆大欢喜。This negotiation will happen across all parts of the oil and gas cost structure. So welders who were making 5,000 a year will probably see a pay cut, while the administrative staff back at headquarters will probably miss out on that fat bonus check they have come to rely on. Rig workers and engineers will see their pay and benefits slashed as well. Anyone who complains will be sent to Alaska or somewhere even worse than Western North Dakota in the winter, like Siberia (seriously). And as with any bursting bubble, asset prices will start to fall for everything from oil leases to jack-up rigs to townhouses in Houston. Oh, and that McDonald’s employee in Western North Dakota will probably need to settle for an hour.在石油和天然气成本结构的各个部分都会出现这样的谈判。因此,年薪13.5万美元的电焊工可能会被降薪,而公司总部的行政人员可能得不到他们所依赖的丰厚奖金,钻井工人和工程师的工资和福利可能也会缩水。任何有怨言的人都会被“发配”到阿拉斯加,或者冬天比北达科他州西部还要难熬的地方,比如西伯利亚(我说真的)。同时,就像所有已经破裂的泡沫一样,资产价格将全面下滑,从油田租约到自升式钻井平台,再到休斯顿的联排别墅,都是如此。对了,在北达科他州西部,麦当劳员工的小时工资可能需要降到15美元。But oil production will continue, that is, until prices reach a point at which it truly makes no sense for anyone to drill anywhere.但石油生产将继续进行,或者说,将持续到油价真的让任何人都没有理由再去开采石油。So, what is the absolute lowest price oil can be produced for in the U.S.? Consider this—fracking last boomed in the U.S. back in the mid-1980s, when a barrel of oil fetched around . That is equivalent to around a barrel today, when adjusted for inflation. That fracking boom went bust after prices fell to around a barrel, which is worth around in today’s money. With oil last week hitting a barrel, it seems that prices have a lot more room to fall before things get really scary.那么在美国,可以撑石油生产的最低油价是多少呢?水力压裂技术上次在美国大行其道是20世纪80年代中期,当时油价为每桶23美元左右。考虑通胀因素后,这相当于现在的50美元。这个繁荣期在油价跌至8美元左右时结束,按目前价格水平计算相当于大约18美元。鉴于上周油价跌至每桶63美元,看来在情况真正变得让人害怕前,油价还有非常大的下行空间。(财富中文网) /201412/347722。
  • Never pick a fight with an ugly person, they#39;ve got nothing to lose.永远不要和一个丑陋的人打架,他们没什么好失去的。Time is the best teacher, but unfortunately, it kills all of its students.时间是最好的老师,不幸的是,它杀了它所有的学生。Comedy is acting out optimism.喜剧就是将乐观演绎出来。You#39;re only given a little spark of madness. You mustn#39;t lose it.上天只给你一丁点儿疯狂,绝对不能丢掉!If women ran the world we wouldn#39;t have wars, just intense negotiations every 28 days.如果由女人来统治这个世界,我们将不会有战争,但是每28天就要进行一场激烈的协商。I love kids, but they are a tough audience.我爱孩子们,但他们可真是不好伺候的观众。In America they really do mythologise people when they die.在美国,人死后就会被神化。You have this idea that you#39;d better keep working otherwise people will forget. And that was dangerous.你认为你最好努力工作,不然会被别人忘记。这个想法很危险。 /201408/320686。
  • The Chinese central bank has made an emergency money injection after a surge in interbank rates, trying to prevent a repeat of the cash crunch that rattled global markets this year.中国央行在中国的间利率飙升后进行了紧急注资操作,试图阻止今年早些时候冲击全球市场的“钱荒”重演。In a highly unusual move, the People’s Bank of China said it had conducted a “short-term liquidity operation” to provide credit to banks in need of money.在一次极不寻常的行动中,中国人民称,它已通过“短期流动性调节工具”(SLO),向亟需资金的提供了信贷。According to the central bank’s own rules, it is only meant to announce SLOs one month after their implementation, but on this occasion it was unwilling to brook such a delay. It used its account on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like platform, yesterday afternoon to tell a jittery market that it had provided banks with the emergency cash.根据中国央行自己的规则,它应当在实施SLO操作的一个月后才予以宣布,但这一次它显然不愿忍耐这种迟延。昨日下午,中国央行利用其新浪微(Weibo,类似于Twitter的微客平台)账户“央行微播”,告诉紧张不安的市场:它已向相关提供了紧急资金。Chinese money market rates had soared earlier in the day to levels last seen in late June when the country was hit by a liquidity squeeze that alarmed investors around the world about the potential for a financial crisis in China. The seven-day bond repurchase rate, an important gauge of short-term liquidity, rose to nearly 10 per cent as banks hoarded cash.昨日早些时候,中国货币市场利率飙升至6月下旬以来未见的高位。中国短期流动性的关键指标——7天期质押式回购利率——升至近10%,纷纷囤积资金。今年6月下旬,中国遭遇一场流动性紧缺,令世界各地投资者震惊,担心中国可能爆发金融危机。The central bank also extended trading in the country’s interbank market by 30 minutes yesterday to give financial institutions additional time to line up funds. The central bank last allowed an extended trading session during the June cash crunch.昨日中国央行还将中国间市场交易延长了30分钟,让金融机构有更多时间获得资金。央行上一次延长交易时间是在6月份“钱荒”期间。“It’s very clear they want to calm market fears,” said Zhou Hao, an analyst with ANZ in Shanghai. “The PBoC does not want to see the cash crunch repeated.”“很显然,他们希望消除市场担心,”澳新(ANZ)常驻上海的分析师周浩表示。“中国人民(PBoC)不想看到钱荒重演。”Yet the immediate cause for the sudden panic gripping the market was the central bank itself. Over five consecutive trading sessions, it had refrained from injecting cash in the financial system through its regular open-market operations.然而,引发突如其来的市场恐慌的直接起因正是中国央行。此前央行连续五个交易日没有通过常态化的公开市场操作向金融体系注入资金。That surprised traders and posed a challenge for banks, which need to refinance a large number of assets before the end of the year.这让交易员们感到意外,并对各构成一个挑战,这些需要在年底前对大量资产进行再融资。During the cash crunch in June, central bank officials explained that they had allowed the money market to tighten as a warning to banks to improve their liquidity management. Several banks had become overly reliant on the interbank market as a cheap source of funds and were using the cash to finance risky off-balance sheet loans.在6月的“钱荒”期间,中国央行官员解释说,他们有意让货币市场收紧,作为对商业的一个警告,要求它们改进流动性管理。此前多家变得过于依赖间市场,将其视为一个廉价资金来源,并利用这些资金为高风险的表外贷款融资。The central bank has since guided money market rates to levels roughly 150 basis points higher than the average before the cash crunch. With China’s stock of credit soaring to about 200 per cent of gross domestic product, from 130 per cent five years ago, analysts believe the government is trying to encourage companies and investors to reduce their debt loads.自那以来,中国央行将货币市场利率引导至高于“钱荒”之前平均值大约150个基点的水平。鉴于中国的信贷存量已从5年前相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的130%升至GDP的大约200%,分析师们相信,政府正试图鼓励企业和投资者降低各自的债务负担。“The PBoC wants money market rates to remain relatively high in order to lower leverage and contain financial risks,” said Duan Jihua, deputy general manager of Guohai Securities. “But they won’t push rates so high that it would actually trigger defaults or bankruptcy.”“中国人民希望货币市场利率保持在相对较高的水平,以便降低杠杆率,遏制金融风险,”国海券(Guohai Securities)副总经理段吉华表示。“但他们不会把利率推高到足以引发违约或破产的水平。” /201312/269606。
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